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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
358 am CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 352 am CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level low pressure system
located over eastern Montana and was moving to the northeast about 25
knots. Water vapor loop also indicated a strong E-W jet punching
into Washington through western Montana with short waves upstream. Upper jet will
move eastern Montana low northeast into southern Canada this evening.
Some warm advection precip is possible for late tonight into sun.
Moist axis remains in western ND for today. Another band of moisture
moves north late tonight and sun into the Red River valley. Look for
some precip to develop with higher moisture moving in.

Nose of E-W upper level jet noses into South Dakota Sun afternoon with precip
in left exit region of the jet. Also cold air moves in aloft over
the northwest half of ND.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 352 am CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Sunday night through Tuesday...the upper trough continues to swing
through the northern plains, with the trough axis/frontal boundary
pushing through the County Warning Area overnight Sunday night. Mu cape values are
around 1500 j/kg but deep layer bulk shear is not very impressive.
Still cannot completely rule out a few strong to severe storms.
Greater than the severe threat will be heavy rain. The r and M-
climate percentiles for the naefs and gefs are both very high, above
95 percent, for pwats as well as quantitative precipitation forecast. Previous thinking of 1.5
inches or more of rain in some areas seems reasonable at this point.
The front will push off into Minnesota during the day on Monday, but there
will be continued showers on the backside of the system as the upper
trough/cold pool continues to move through our northeastern
counties. Another reinforcing shortwave digging in from Canada will
bring continued shower chances into Tuesday. Temps will be knocked
back quite a bit with this wave and highs Tuesday could stay in the
60s, well below our seasonal averages.

Wednesday through Friday...northwesterly flow aloft sets in behind
the upper trough, with unseasonably cool air continuing. Fall like
temperatures are possible, although uncertain at this point if we
will have enough clearing to drop below the 40 mark. A few showers
lingering in northwestern Minnesota Wednesday but otherwise the end of the
work week will be dry.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Will hold onto the VFR sky conditions thru this period, with low
end VFR conditions in the dvl basin most of the time with more
mid/high clouds sct-bkn in coverage Red River into Minnesota. South-southeast
winds will be the main story as they increase into the 15-25 kt
range with gusts locally to 30-35 kts in the nrn Red River Saturday
midday and aftn. Winds a bit lighter in Bemidji more 12-18 kts
with gusts in the aftn to 25 kts.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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