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fxus63 kfgf 182008 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
308 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Upper level low pressure system over southern man will continue to
move northeast tonight. Showers/isolated thunder along the northern
ND border will continue to move east along the border. Upper level
ridge will move over the area. Surface high pressure will settle
over southern Canada tonight.

Upper level trough off the California/or coast will move into the
intermountain west by 12z Fri. Low level moisture and instability
will move into the south and west zones Thu night. Also a low level
jet will move into the western Dakotas Thu night. Will push back
pops for Thu night with more activity expected farther west of the
forecast area.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Strong system Friday and Friday night the main concern for the
extended time frame. Hazards include severe weather and a heavy rain
threat Friday evening into Saturday morning. Models continue to
trend a bit slower with the cold front moving through the region
Friday. This will allow temps to climb into the 80s and ample
moisture streaming northward during the day Friday on 30kt 925mb
south winds, surface dewpoints will climb back towards 70f. This
moisture will bring instability ahead of the cold front and combined
with shear storms are expected to become severe along the cold front
across the central Dakotas in the afternoon. By evening storms will
be moving into the Devils Lake basin and Red River valley. All
modes, tornado, wind and hail will initially be possible with a
trend towards a wind event into northwest Minnesota. Widespread rainfall amounts
are expected to be in the 1 to 2 inch range with locally higher
amounts possible. Cips analogs along with European model (ecmwf) and gefs ensembles
indicating 99 percentile or maximum precip probabilities for the 12 to
24 hour totals across central ND into the northern valley. Placement
of this signal may change but the takeaway from this signal is that
the potential for widespread anomalous rainfall amount is
increasing. Obvious impacts would be a widespread harvest halting
rainfall Friday night into Saturday.

In the wake of the system temperatures will return to more seasonal
values with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to near 50 for
Sunday into Tuesday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

MVFR conditions were over the far western and the far eastern zones.
VFR elsewhere. Expect MVFR conditions for the northern zones for
the afternoon and evening. MVFR conditions possible in the
northeast zones Thu morning.


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...


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