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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
341 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Concern tonight into the tomorrow are showers and storm
development along with temps and wind Friday. Overnight tonight
strong temp and moisture advection is expected to aid the
development of non-severe showers and storms in the predawn
hours. This activity will linger into the late morning giving way
to strong south winds and a mix of clouds and sun. This will allow
highs to reach into the low 80s as long as morning activity
deteriorates. South winds will be breezy with gusts to 25 to
35mph.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Attention late Friday afternoon into the evening turns to severe
weather potential and the threat of heavy rainfall. Models bring
instability with surface based cape into eastern ND Friday afternoon
up into the 2000 to 3000j/kg. Placement of the strongest shear
values aligns along and behind the cold front. Href updraft
helicities depict the strongest features, supercellular Mode,
across western an central ND in the afternoon and spreads eastward
slowly into the evening into the dvl Lake Basin and northern
valley. Expecting storms to reach into the central and southern
valley around or after midnight. All modes set to be possible in
the Devils Lake basin with 1" hail and 60mph wind gusts will be
the main threat in the valley. Heavy rainfall signal continues
with cips analogs and ensemble guidance indicating high end of to
2 inches in dvl basin. Widespread 0.50" to 1.5" is expected
through Saturday morning with the lower amounts in the lakes
country of Minnesota.

00z sun - 00z Mon

Upper level system is forecast to over ND Sat night. Wrap around
precip will shift out of the area Sat night and sun. Cooler with
highs in the 60s.

Mon - Thu

Split flow will be across North America with northern stream over
southern Canada and southern stream over the southern US. Long wave
trough will move across southern Canada through the period. Another
long wave trough remains over the Desert Southwest.

Flow aloft remains progressive. The GFS and the European model (ecmwf) were in good
agreement through Mon with the northern stream. The European model (ecmwf) becomes
the faster solution and more zonal than the GFS after Mon. Chance
for rain/thunder on Wed.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Narrow band of IFR cigs extended from near Mayville ND to northwest
of dvl. This narrow band was surround by MVFR cigs from east central
ND to the Devils Lake basin. Another area with MVFR cigs was located
over Northern Lake of the Woods County in Minnesota. Elsewhere it was
mostly clear sky. Expect IFR/MVFR areas to dissolve on the southern
edge of the cloud decks this afternoon. Should become VFR across the
area by mid to late afternoon and continue VFR through Fri morning.
Mid level clouds around 6-9 thousand ft will move in form the
southwest by sunrise Fri.



&&

Fgf watches/warnings/advisories...
ND...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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