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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
713 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019

Update...

Scattered light showers ahead of the approaching frontal system
are ongoing across portions of far north Georgia. Have trended
pops up across the far northern tier, as a result. The main axis
of precipitation is still anticipated to move into the forecast
area later this evening and push southward through the forecast
area during the overnight period and Tuesday morning. Otherwise,
the short-term forecast remains on track, with only minor
adjustments made based on the latest observations.

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion.

King

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 242 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019/

Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...

.Wintry mix possible across far northern tier tonight...

Hard to believe we will be talking about wintry wx possible later
this evening based on the temperatures we have out there right now.
Widespread upper 60s with even some lower 70s for central Georgia are
commonplace. But a strong cold front continues to push into the
Tennessee Valley at this hour with temperatures quickly dropping
into the lower 30s in its immediate wake. Showers are developing
well ahead of this and already pushing into northern Alabama at this
hour.

Expect main axis of precipitation to move into the state by mid to
late evening and then progress into the remainder of north Georgia into
the first half of the overnight period. This initial period will be
all rain for the area with any frozen precipitation occurring on the
back edge of the precipitation shield. Temperatures will be
plummeting behind the front which is concerning given the model
temps below freezing. Ground temps however should remain above
freezing through most of the precip limiting any travel issues.

Hi res models are really hitting the freezing rain potential hard.
However, this is not climatologically favored at all for this area,
transitioning to freezing rain on the back side of a cold front.
Will still need to be monitored but for this forecast will be
favoring more of a sleet/snow mixture with the rain. Could see some
"flash" aspects to this event once precip exits and residual water
on roadways freezes with fast arriving sub freezing temps. Overall
however, with limited accumulations mainly for the higher elevations
and warm initial ground temps, will do an Special Weather Statement in lieu of any
advisories at this time.

Will issue a Wind Advisory with this package starting tonight and
going on through Tuesday for all but the far eastern tier counties.
Wind chills look to remain just above criteria but will need to be
monitored closely.

Deese

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...

Mainly quiet weather will prevail through the long term period with
high pressure in place. The next chances for rain will be late
Thursday/early Friday as a trough begins to develop just to the west
of the area. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are still showing several differences
with this system especially in regards to timing and moisture. Both
models bring the cut off the low across Georgia before moving it off
the coast into the Atlantic, but the European model (ecmwf) is much wetter than the
GFS and slightly slower than the GFS. Overall, have included slight
chance to chance pops across the area early Friday into early
Saturday as the system works through the area. The system should
clear sometime on Saturday, leaving US with another day of dry
weather before the next system impacts the area on Monday.

Temperatures through the extended forecast are expected to continue
to be below average. Thursday morning will be another chilly morning
with temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s across the area, 10 to 13
degrees below average. Temperatures will rebound some through the
rest of the extended with highs in the upper 40s, 50s, and lower 60s
with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Reaves

&&

Aviation...
00z update...
mainly VFR conditions are in place across the forecast area to begin
the taf period, however, cloud coverage has begun to increase at the
northern taf sites. Ceilings will lower to MVFR and -ra will begin
at the Metro sites between 04-06z and csg/mcn/ahn between 07-10z.
SW winds of 8 kts or less early in the period will shift to northwest
between 07-10z, increasing to 12-18 kts with gusts in excess of
20 kts by 10z and throughout the day Tuesday. After the wind
shift, ceilings will again lower to IFR and remain so between
around 10-15z, improving quickly thereafter, with precipitation
also moving out of the area. VFR conditions will then remain
through Tuesday afternoon.

//Atl confidence...00z update...
medium confidence on wind gust speed and timing and duration of
IFR ceilings.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 45 51 25 46 / 100 100 0 0
Atlanta 39 44 25 45 / 100 100 0 0
Blairsville 33 36 18 43 / 100 80 0 0
Cartersville 36 39 22 48 / 100 90 0 0
Columbus 46 53 28 51 / 100 100 0 0
Gainesville 40 45 25 45 / 90 90 0 0
Macon 48 56 27 49 / 70 90 5 0
Rome 35 39 22 48 / 100 70 0 0
Peachtree City 40 45 24 48 / 100 100 0 0
Vidalia 54 66 30 52 / 20 70 30 0

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
freeze watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
the following zones: Baldwin...banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...
Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...crisp...
DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...Floyd...
Forsyth...Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...
Haralson...Harris...heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...
Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...
Muscogee...Newton...north Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...
Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...
Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Wind Advisory from 1 am to 7 PM EST Tuesday for the following
zones: Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...
Chattahoochee...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...crisp...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dooly...Douglas...
Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...
Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Harris...heard...Henry...Houston...
Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Macon...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
north Fulton...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...
Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...towns...Troup...Union...Upson...Walker...
Walton...Webster...white...Whitfield.

&&

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