Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 192350
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
650 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019
Only minor tweaks made to the forecast. Overnight, there's a very
small chance for very light showers across far northeast Georgia,
otherwise no rain is expected until Friday morning. Lows around 40
expected for the majority of the forecast area tonight with clear
skies, north-northwest winds, and highs in the low- to mid-60s tomorrow.
Previous discussion... /issued 247 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019/
Short term /tonight through Wednesday night/...
The axis of the upper-level longwave trough has shifted to the east
of the forecast area, with the shortwave disturbance exiting the
area, as well. Light showers associated with this disturbance have
come to an end and skies have cleared across the majority of the
area. A weak disturbance on the back-side of the trough may lead to
a slight chance of light showers in the higher elevations of far
northeast Georgia during the overnight hours, although no rainfall
accumulations are expected at this time. A northwesterly flow
pattern aloft is setting up behind the trough and upper-level
ridging and surface high pressure are expected to build over the
southeastern Continental U.S. By Wednesday and through the end of the short-
term period. As a result, clear and cool conditions are in store
across the forecast area on Tuesday night and through the day
Wednesday. Temperatures through the rest of the day and tomorrow
will run near climatological normals, with highs mainly ranging
from the low to the mid 60s and lows mainly ranging from the upper
30s to the mid 40s.
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
GFS and European model (ecmwf) have come into better agreement with the long term
features. The next significant rain event is expected for the end
of the week into the weekend. Models want to slow down the onset
of rain and so have pushed back pops into late Thursday night.
Pops increase to likely across much of the forecast area Friday
through Saturday...tapering off Saturday night. Cape still looks
limited ahead of the front on Saturday so will continue to hold
off on the mention of thunder. Sunday and Monday look dry as the
upper ridge builds eastward. Low pops have been introduced again
Tuesday in the northwest corner ahead of the next frontal system.
VFR conditions expected through the taf period with an outside
chance for some sct015 overnight for northern sites. Westerly
winds will turn northwesterly tonight and north-northwest tomorrow morning
becoming the strongest between 13-17z around 6-10 knts and gusts
up to 15kts possible, as gradient winds strengthen before
becoming lighter in the afternoon. Skies expected to be mostly
clear through the rest of the taf period.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
medium on absence of sct015 overnight for northern sites.
High on all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 42 64 41 66 / 5 0 0 0
Atlanta 42 62 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 37 57 37 62 / 10 0 0 0
Cartersville 39 61 40 67 / 5 0 0 0
Columbus 43 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 41 62 41 64 / 5 0 0 0
Macon 42 66 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 38 61 39 67 / 5 0 0 0
Peachtree City 41 64 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 44 66 42 68 / 0 0 0 0