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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
727 am EDT Mon Sep 23 2019



..12z aviation discussion...



Previous discussion... /issued 346 am EDT Mon Sep 23 2019/

Short term /today through Tuesday/...

Happy first day of fall! While the autumnal equinox occurs early
this morning, it's still going to feel like Summer for a while
longer.

High pressure will continue to be the primary influence over the
region to start the short term forecast. Today, mostly sunny skies
will clear the way for temperatures to climb up to the upper 80s and
lower 90s across the forecast area; this would be around 6-10 degree
above normal for this time of year. In the afternoon/evening a
frontal system will begin encroaching on the forecast area and hold
a tiny sliver of hope to bringing some showers to the far northern
and northwestern corners of Georgia. Instability is expected to be
pretty limited so no thunderstorms are in the forecast for today.

Overnight, the frontal boundary will weaken and move into central
Georgia. The precipitation accompanying the front is expected to
dissipate with the end of diurnal mixing in the evening. Even though
this is technically a 'cold' front, a slight increase in sky cover
potential and overnight wind speed will reduce the amount of
radiational cooling slightly which will actually increase the
overnight lows in the forecast area from near-60 this morning to the
upper-60s and lower-70s tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow, the front will weaken as it settles into central Georgia,
but will also act as a convergent boundary and increase vertical
lifting, increasing cloud cover and rain chances for the area. While
instability will be increased in this area rain chances are still
expected to remain below 25% with a chance for some very isolated
rumbles of thunder. High temperatures in far north Georgia look to
'fall' to the mid-80s, however, most of the forecast area will see
increased temperatures with highs around 90 for the atl Metro and I-
20 corridor and mid-90s in store for central Georgia.

Thiem

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions to continue into early
next week.

500mb high pressure center currently across the Gulf states will
begin to shift slightly southward by late Tuesday/early Wednesday
with the upper flow returning to a more zonal pattern through the
end of the week. High pressure aloft begins to build back by the
weekend.

Very weak front/pressure trough is situated across central Georgia by
late Tuesday. The trough should linger through Wednesday, but will
diminish by Thursday. High pressure builds back in for the remainder
of the long term period.

The forecast remains abnormally dry through the long term. Models
are progging isolated pops across the NE mtns in the end of the
week, but chances are so small, will leave out the mention at this
time. Temps will continue to run 10-15 degrees above normal.

Nlistemaa

Climate...

Records for 09-23

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 102 1931 64 1947 72 1931 43 1918
1925 1913
katl 94 1931 61 1995 75 1931 45 1982
kcsg 100 1925 65 1929 74 1980 45 1983
1926
kmcn 98 1970 61 1897 74 1980 46 1999
1925

Records for 09-24

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 103 1931 59 1995 72 1940 30 1928
1931
1925
katl 93 1980 56 1995 73 1980 45 1990
1931
kcsg 100 1921 61 1995 74 2009 47 1982
1975
kmcn 96 1993 59 1995 73 1980 44 1967
1961 1930
1931

Records for 09-25

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 96 1931 59 1989 70 2018 42 1928
1980
1931
katl 93 2010 57 1989 74 2018 45 1887
kcsg 101 1931 60 1989 74 1988 48 1990
1928
kmcn 96 1993 59 1989 73 2018 45 1990
1961 1988
1980

Records for 09-26

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 96 1925 59 1924 71 1904 45 2001
1950
katl 90 1986 59 1940 72 2018 43 2001
1911
kcsg 99 1921 65 1974 74 1931 48 2001
kmcn 96 2018 65 1974 72 2018 46 1964
1970 1940 2005
1976

Records for 09-27

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 94 1954 62 1949 70 1999 44 1940
1933 1996
1976
katl 93 1954 62 1937 73 1911 44 1940
1879
kcsg 97 1904 65 1948 75 1998 48 1975
1956
kmcn 94 1986 65 1937 73 2005 45 1899
1970 1998
1958 1939

Records for 09-28

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 95 1911 52 1957 72 1999 42 1947
katl 93 1986 55 1957 74 1911 42 1967
kcsg 98 1904 64 1957 75 1998 48 1985
1942
kmcn 96 1986 60 1957 74 1999 45 1985
1906

Records for 09-29

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 95 1933 55 1957 72 1904 42 1967
katl 92 1941 56 1957 72 1904 39 1967
1904
kcsg 100 1904 61 1957 75 1925 42 1967
kmcn 95 1941 59 1957 73 1936 41 1967
1915

Records for 09-30

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 96 1933 60 1957 72 1904 36 1967
1911
katl 91 1941 56 1920 74 1904 36 1967
1890 1884
kcsg 100 1904 63 1957 74 1944 38 1967
kmcn 95 1954 61 1957 72 1954 35 1967
1904 1953
1915

&&



Aviation...
12z update...

Primarily expecting continued VFR conditions through the day into
the early overnight period. Today, few050 possible ahead of the
frontal system with winds out of the west-west-northwest between 4-8 kts
falling below 5 kts tonight. Overnight, ceilings around 3-5kft are
expected to move into the northern forecast area. At this time,
these lower ceilings are expected to encroach on the atl taf sites
but remains unclear as to how far south these lower ceilings will
protrude. After 12z, mixing should begin breaking up whatever
cloud deck remains from the night hours.

//Atl confidence...
12z update...

Medium on tomorrow morning ceilings.
High on all other elements.

Thiem

&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 90 67 91 63 / 5 10 10 0
Atlanta 89 70 90 65 / 5 10 10 0
Blairsville 83 61 82 55 / 10 10 5 0
Cartersville 91 67 90 58 / 10 10 10 0
Columbus 93 69 93 68 / 5 10 20 5
Gainesville 88 68 89 63 / 5 10 5 0
Macon 90 67 93 65 / 5 5 10 5
Rome 91 67 88 57 / 10 10 10 0
Peachtree City 91 68 91 61 / 5 10 10 0
Vidalia 91 66 95 70 / 5 5 10 5

&&



Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

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