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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
1240 am EST sun Nov 17 2019

..06z aviation forecast discussion...

Update...
no changes to an otherwise quiet forecast.

Bdl

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Previous discussion... /issued 600 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019/

Short term /today through Monday/...

Current radar loop shows a few showers lingering across east central
Georgia as main low pressure center begins is way up the eastern
Seaboard. These showers are diminishing and should exit the area by
sunset. Main low centered just off the Florida/Georgia coast and is expected
to deepen as it moves NE up the East Coast over the next 48 hours.
Clouds around the backside of the low are clearing the area from northwest
to southeast. All locations should see clear skies by tonight/Sunday
morning. A weak ridge is beginning to build in over the area behind
the exiting low pressure system which should keep things dry for the
rest of the short term. Looking at low temps tonight and Sunday
night mainly in the 30s to near 40 with highs Sunday in the the
upper 50s to near 60 across the area.

01

Long term /Monday night through Friday/...

Not much change for the long term. A series of short waves will
affect the forecast area through the period. The first wave on
Monday moves through the Ohio Valley and the moisture looks too far
north and east. The next stronger wave for Tuesday seems to bring
more moisture farther south but seems to pull the moisture rapidly
to the north. So...for now have kept the forecast area dry through
mid week with only an increase in cloudiness. Models seem consistent
with bringing deeper Gulf moisture into Georgia on late Thursday into
Friday...ahead of a stronger upper trough and cold front. European model (ecmwf) at
this point seems faster with the front...but pops for the far
north on Thursday and increasing pops into Friday looks
reasonable.

41

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Aviation...
06z update...

Scattered to broken clouds in the 030-050 range expected at the taf sites
through this forecast. May see some patchy MVFR ceilings across
portions of central Georgia through 15z, however, no impacts are
expected at the taf sites at this time. Northeast winds 4-8kt
becoming northwest and diminishing to 6kt or less after 18z.

//Atl confidence...06z update...

Medium.

20

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 38 60 39 60 / 5 5 5 0
Atlanta 38 59 40 57 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 33 58 34 53 / 5 5 5 0
Cartersville 34 60 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 40 63 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 37 59 39 57 / 5 5 5 0
Macon 39 61 40 63 / 5 5 5 0
Rome 32 61 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 37 60 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 41 60 42 66 / 10 5 5 5

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Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
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