Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kffc 151923 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
223 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

Short term /tonight through Saturday night/...
upper low has cut off and is currently over south central Alabama. This
low will move across the outlook area overnight and into Saturday
with northwest flow aloft Saturday night. At the surface, a coastal low
will move north along a coast overnight and Saturday.

Patchy light rain continues early this afternoon ahead of the
approaching upper level low pressure center. As the upper low moves
across, lapse rates are expected to steepen. Even with no surface
instability, a transition from a more stratiform type rain to
convective showers is likely. Thunder is not anticipated at this
time. The highest precip chances for the afternoon/evening should be
Metro atl and southward and should taper off from the northwest to
southeast overnight. Quantitative precipitation forecast values have increased across southern
portions of the cwa, as the upper low moves across.

High pressure will build in for Saturday with dry conditions
expected. However, temperatures will remain below average for this
time of year.


Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
no major concerns in the long term period in spite of a highly
progressive pattern.

As upper low moves off Carolina coasts, long wave upper trough
persists over the eastern Continental U.S. Thru Wednesday and at two short
waves traversing through during that time. First wave pivots
through ern Tennessee/N Georgia Sunday night/Monday and in spite of very
limited moisture, lift sufficient for a few sprinkles/showers in
far north Georgia. Second wave more broad and progged by most medium
range guidance to push further south quickly across srn Alabama/srn
Georgia/N Florida on Tuesday. Temperature profiles for both events only
support liquid precip with the Tuesday wave more likely to produce
measurable rainfall.

Still good agreement between models for strong northwest flow behind
this wave, bringing clear skies and cool temps especially at
night late Tuesday and Wednesday. SW flow aloft returns on
Thursday with increase in clouds and moisture, so warmer min
temps. Any chance for rain would be well after Thursday.

Forecasts after mid week also likely to be highly uncertain as
upper low progged over srn California at that time could cutoff or remain
open. Typically those scenarios always handled very poorly which
results in overall poor forecasts over the Continental U.S..



18z update...
expect precip to fill back in shortly as an upper low moves across
the area this afternoon/evening. Models do show a slight
improvement in ceilings to MVFR late this afternoon and have been
fairly consistent with this scenario. Winds may flip flop around
due north, but should mostly stay on the north-northwest side overnight and
flip over to the north-northeast tomorrow morning around 12z.

//Atl confidence...18z update...
Med confidence on cigs and winds. High confidence remaining



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 41 57 37 60 / 50 10 5 0
Atlanta 39 58 37 58 / 50 5 0 0
Blairsville 32 58 33 57 / 30 5 5 0
Cartersville 34 58 33 60 / 30 0 0 0
Columbus 41 62 39 63 / 70 5 0 0
Gainesville 40 59 37 59 / 30 5 5 0
Macon 43 57 38 61 / 70 10 5 0
Rome 34 58 32 59 / 30 0 0 0
Peachtree City 39 60 35 60 / 60 5 0 0
Vidalia 45 52 40 62 / 70 30 10 0


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations