Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 190000
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
700 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019
..evening update and 00z aviation discussion...
The forecast remains on track tonight with no weather concerns
expected. Lows tonight will bottom out between the upper 30s for
north to west central Georgia to the low 40s for east central Georgia. Light
west-northwest winds with upper-level clouds.
Previous discussion... /issued 249 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019/
Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
As the short-term period begins, an upper-level longwave trough will
be in place across the eastern conus, with a series of shortwave
disturbances traversing around the trough. Isolated showers across
the area earlier today have come to an end as the first shortwave
continues to lift northeastward away from the forecast area. On
Tuesday, a second shortwave is expected to approach the area. This
disturbance will move into northern Alabama in the early morning
hours, then quickly push through north and central Georgia before
exiting to the east by mid-afternoon. Deep moisture associated with
this disturbance will be limited -- not sufficient to warrant any
pops higher than about 10 percent, but still enough to support some
scattered to broken mid-level clouds.
By Tuesday evening, the axis of the longwave trough itself will
clear the forecast area as the trough pushes east towards the
Atlantic coast. A northwesterly flow pattern aloft will set up
behind the trough as upper-level ridging and surface high pressure
begin to develop over the southeastern Continental U.S. At the end of the short-
term period. Temperatures through the rest of the day and tomorrow
will run between 0-4 degrees below climatological normals, with
highs mainly ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s and lows
mainly ranging from the mid 30s to the low 40s.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
No big changes for the long term. Upper troughs moving across the
Ohio Valley through Tuesday still look basically dry for our area.
Upper ridging takes over for Wednesday and early Thursday. By late
Thursday the southwest flow begins to bring increasing moisture
into the southeast. Have kept the far northwest corner with low
pops for Thursday...with increasing pops over the forecast area
through Saturday. Have upped the pops to likely for the north and
west Friday into Saturday. GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in closer agreement
with the developing surface system on Saturday...with the GFS
still a bit faster. In general...it still looks like pops should
be decreasing from the northwest Saturday night and continuing
into Sunday...with Sunday night and Monday dry. Temperatures at or
slightly below normal will return after the front on Sunday.
VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Westerly winds
will be light tonight strengthening tomorrow to 4-8 knots tomorrow
afternoon with occasional gusts up to 15 knts possible. A bkn250
cloud deck will slowly descent tonight with few/sct/bkn possible
between 10-15kft tomorrow morning. The moisture will continue to
descend through the day with few/scattered 3-6kft possible by tomorrow
//Atl confidence...00z update...
medium to high on low-VFR cigs tomorrow evening.
Medium to high at ahn.
High on all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 41 60 40 65 / 0 5 0 0
Atlanta 40 59 41 62 / 0 5 0 0
Blairsville 34 52 36 58 / 0 10 5 0
Cartersville 37 59 39 64 / 0 5 0 0
Columbus 41 64 42 68 / 0 5 0 0
Gainesville 40 56 40 63 / 0 10 0 0
Macon 41 63 41 67 / 0 5 0 0
Rome 37 60 38 63 / 0 10 0 0
Peachtree City 39 61 39 64 / 0 5 0 0
Vidalia 44 64 42 68 / 0 5 0 0