Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 190722
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
322 am EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
Short term /today through Friday/...
latest regional surface analysis indicates wedge front has made
it just about out of the area with the majority now over portions
of eastern Alabama. Behind this feature, high pressure continues
to wedge in through the Carolinas and the local area. Dewpoints
already significantly lower with mid to upper 50s across most
locations and this has resulted in lower min temps as well.
Despite an abundance of cloud cover, sites like Atlanta which
were around 80 degrees this time last night, are some 8 degrees
Expect cloud cover to remain over the area for most of today and
gone on the higher side of guidance for cloud cover. Still think
there could be enough sun late though to allow for temps to just
creep into the lower 80s for north Georgia. But should the clouds hang
on just a little longer though, would not be surprised to see
some upper 70s high more in line with the mav guidance.
First cool down as we approach the fall season in store for
tonight with lower 50s for the mountains and mid to upper 50s
elsewhere. Should be clearing skies and lower winds which should
enhance radiational cooling conditions. One additional day around
climo in store for Friday with lower 80s for most locales although
mid 80s will be the rule over central Georgia.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
no major concerns for the long term period with mostly
dry weather expected. High pressure is expected to predominate
through the weekend.
A weak cold front is forecast to move into the area late Monday
to early Tuesday and become stationary late Tuesday into
Wednesday. This is where the GFS and European differ with the
European mainly dry and the GFS having more and moisture and
producing some rain amounts from late Monday into Wednesday over
portions of the forecast area.
Will keep things dry for now until there is more consistency
between the models with rain chances.
Temperatures are expected to be within several degrees of normal
to start but warm to above normal from Sunday/Monday and beyond.
large area of VFR cigs is currently infiltrating all taf sites
ranging mainly from bkn035 to bkn065. Expect this to continue
through the late morning and possibly into early afternoon. Should
see additional lessening of the cloud cover through this even
with sky clear by 02z on Fri. Winds will be gusty again today out of the
east but these gusts should be on the low end with Max values
around 20 kts at atl.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium on VFR cig duration.
High on remaining elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 80 55 81 58 / 5 0 0 0
Atlanta 82 59 82 62 / 5 0 0 0
Blairsville 74 52 76 52 / 5 5 0 0
Cartersville 83 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 86 62 86 65 / 5 0 0 0
Gainesville 79 57 80 58 / 5 0 0 0
Macon 84 58 84 63 / 5 0 5 0
Rome 84 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 83 58 83 61 / 5 0 0 0
Vidalia 85 61 85 64 / 0 5 10 0