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000 
FXUS62 KFFC 071950
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Lingering low level moisture has brought persistent cloud 
cover to much of the forecast area through the first half of the day 
despite dry northwest flow aloft. These clouds should continue to 
slowly scatter somewhat through the remainder of the afternoon.

Overnight and into Sunday morning, a wedge pattern will build into 
north Georgia as the parent surface high pushes into New England. 
This pattern will persist through the day Sunday as the surface high 
slips off the Atlantic coast. Mostly cloudy conditions can thus be 
expected, and high temperatures will likely run around ten degrees 
cooler than today in north Georgia while any 60 degree temperatures 
will remain relegated to central Georgia. Isolated to scattered 
shower activity will primarily hold off until late Sunday into 
Sunday night when upglide increases more appreciably. Even so, only 
light showers are expected through the end of the forecast period.

RW


.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
No major changes made in the extended forecast period. The long 
term begins with a wedge still in place across northeast Georgia 
but it is weakening. As southwest flow advects moisture over the 
wedge, chances for showers will continue into the early hours 
Monday. Have continued with with increased chance pops Monday 
afternoon, as the wedge breaks down. A large longwave trough will 
push a strong cold front towards the area Tuesday with the arrival
of the front during the day Wednesday. Have included chance pops 
across much of the area with likely pops across portions of 
northern Georgia. The highest QPF amounts Monday through Wednesday
look to be across far northern Georgia, around 1 to 2 inches with
around a half inch or less further south. In addition, models are
showing some slight differences on the backside of this system 
with the GFS showing another shortwave trough developing and 
crossing the local forecast area late Wednesday into Thursday and 
the ECMWF, while still showing the shortwave trough, clears precip
from the local forecast area by Thursday and takes the trough 
much further south of the area. Overall, decided to trend on the 
drier side for pops in this time period, with slight chance to 
chance pops Wednesday afternoon and clearing across the area on 
Thursday. 

Post frontal passage, high pressure will build into the area at the 
surface, providing dry weather for Thursday. By Friday, chances for 
precipitation will increase again as models show a developing 
surface low in the Gulf moving towards the local forecast area on 
Friday and Saturday. Although models are showing some differences in 
timing, have included chance pops for Friday through the early 
weekend.

High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be about 5 to 15 
degrees above average in the 60s and 70s, returning to the 40s and 
50s through the rest of the extended. Overnight lows Tuesday morning 
will be very warm in the 50s and 60s, around 20 to 25 degrees above 
average. Otherwise, lows through the rest of the extended are 
expected to be in the 30s and 40s. 

Reaves/01


&&


.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
BKN VFR cigs in the 050-070 range will prevail at TAF sites
through the 21-23z time frame before scattering more appreciably.
Borderline VFR/MVFR cigs in the 025-040 range will increase by 
09-11z Sunday, though confidence in persistent MVFR cigs is 
marginal at this time. Winds will remain from the east, initially
5-8kts and increasing to 8-12kts overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on Sunday morning cigs.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  53  45  62 /   5   5  40  50 
Atlanta         43  54  48  64 /   5  10  40  40 
Blairsville     36  50  41  55 /   5  20  60  60 
Cartersville    43  56  47  65 /   5  10  40  40 
Columbus        47  61  52  71 /   5  20  40  30 
Gainesville     40  51  44  58 /   5  10  50  50 
Macon           43  60  49  70 /   5   5  20  30 
Rome            43  56  48  65 /   5  10  40  40 
Peachtree City  43  57  47  66 /   5  10  40  40 
Vidalia         44  64  52  74 /   0   5  10  20 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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