Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 142300 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
600 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019
Update for aviation...
Previous discussion... /issued 235 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019/
Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
near term guidance a little off on initial round of light rain but
rest of forecast hours seem OK. Rain moving in will continue to
expand east tonight with all but the far northwest counties seeing cold
rain with no chance of thunder or mixed precip. Not my cup of Tea.
As positively tilted wave slowly slides out Friday, rain will end
from the west but linger over southeast counties. Clouds will also
persist thru Friday evening before clearing from the west after
No threats anticipated with this event. Temps tonight will remain
well above freezing in the lower to mid 40s but essentially
constant. Not too cold behind the wave/front.
Long term /Saturday through Thursday/...
no major changes made to the extended forecast. A deepening cutoff
low will be moving eastward from southern Alabama into the Florida
Panhandle/southern Georgia as the extended period begins. Model
guidance has come into much better agreement with respect to the
timing and track of this system, with the latest GFS and European model (ecmwf)
indicating the low moving eastward across southern Georgia through
Saturday morning before pushing into the Atlantic on Saturday
afternoon/evening. Scattered showers will be ongoing as this system
continues its eastward move to the immediate south of the forecast
area. The highest rain chances are expected early Saturday morning,
and will diminish from west to east as the low moves away to the
east, with chances coming to an end by Saturday night. Chance pops
have been maintained along and south of the I-85 corridor, with
progressively diminishing chances further north.
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will build in over
the southeastern states Sunday, bringing in a much drier airmass.
Another trough then quickly approaches the forecast area in the
early parts of next week, moving over north and central Georgia on
Monday and Tuesday. Model guidance is inconsistent regarding both
timing and the amount of moisture associated with this system. The
latest GFS solution is slower moving the trough axis through the
forecast area, and shows a deepening surface low associated with the
trough moving southeastward into north Georgia on Tuesday, bringing
showers into the area during the day Tuesday. Meanwhile, the latest
European model (ecmwf) indicates a drier, faster solution, developing the surface low
further south in the northern Gulf and bringing showers into central
and portions of north Georgia Monday night. With little agreement or
run-to-run consistency between models, have limited pops to only
slight chance for Monday night into Tuesday. Furthermore, the
rainfall totals associated with this system appear to be negligible,
with little to no measurable precipitation expected at this time.
Lingering moisture behind the system could lead to some additional
light showers across far northern tier early Wednesday, however,
wintry precipitation is not currently anticipated. The end of the
period will then be characterized by northwesterly flow aloft and
high pressure at the surface building in from the west. Temperatures
will gradually warm through the extended period, with high
temperatures in the mid 50s across much of the area Saturday
steadily increasing each day until reaching into the 60s across the
area by Wednesday afternoon. Similarly, low temperatures Sunday
morning will drop into the low-to-mid 30s, then gradually increase
by a couple of degrees each day until only dropping into the low 40s
across the area by Thursday morning.
increasing rain chances across the area will continue. MVFR
ceilings will continue with potential for IFR-LIFR ceilings
favoring central Georgia and portions of north Georgia and could include
the atl area tafs and ahn as well. MVFR vsby restrictions
can be expected and IFR vsbys could be possible as well.
Surface winds north-northeast 10 kts of less becoming north-northwest on Friday.
//Atl confidence...00z update...
low to medium confidence for ceilings and vsbys.
Medium to high confidence for weather and winds.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 39 53 40 57 / 80 60 30 10
Atlanta 40 51 37 57 / 80 50 30 10
Blairsville 35 51 31 56 / 40 20 10 5
Cartersville 38 53 33 59 / 50 30 10 5
Columbus 43 52 40 62 / 90 60 40 10
Gainesville 39 53 39 58 / 70 40 20 10
Macon 42 53 42 58 / 90 80 60 20
Rome 37 54 33 57 / 40 20 10 5
Peachtree City 40 52 37 59 / 80 60 30 10
Vidalia 46 55 45 56 / 90 90 60 30