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fxus62 kffc 221936 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
336 PM EDT sun Sep 22 2019



Short term /tonight through Monday night/...
no concerns with the forecast in the short term period. As
mentioned, new guidance still indicates less than 20% chance
of isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain over far northwest and north Georgia Monday afternoon.
By Monday evening, what little upper forcing we had lifts away
and with loss of surface heating, any convection will dissipate.
Temps will continue to climb with low 90s expected at most
locations Monday.

Snelson



Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
just some minor tweaks made to fcst. Cannot rule out a slight chance
of some isolated convection triggered near a stalled boundary and
some conditional instability in the far SW portion of the County Warning Area
Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise maintaining a dry and abnormally warm
ridge dominated rest of the period. Some model differences in amount
of moisture and broad upper wave energy across the Tennessee Valley for
Wed/Thu but will keep dry in north Georgia for now. Likely going to flirt
with or break daytime high records for some locations for Thursday
into the weekend. Previous discussion and daily records follow.

Baker



Previous long term discussion... /issued 345 am EDT sun Sep 22 2019/

The long term portion begins as a frontal boundary sags into the
area. Moisture will be very limited, especially according to the
European model (ecmwf) which continues to show no precip associated with the
frontal feature. GFS is more aggressive with 1.90 inch
precipitable water entering the far northern tier late Monday
evening. Instability will be close to non existent with the very
warm mid layers in place. Will use a blend but lean toward the
drier solution which yields just a small sliver of 20 pops.

Front moves through the area through Tuesday but any cool off will
be no more than a degree or 2 and portions of central Georgia will see
no relief with highs in the mid 90s. Some enhanced instability
Tue afternoon for central Georgia in vicinity of the front but at this
time, given continued dry conditions per ECMWF, will keep grids
pop free for this time period.

Remainder of the long term will feature at times some upper level
energy moving across mainly the northern tier. However, moisture
looks even more limited with these runs as compared with last
nights and have chosen to just indicate a dry forecast for the
grids as well. Low to mid 90s will be the rule and this will take
US right up to the end of the month with these continued hot
conditions.

Deese

&&

Aviation...
18z update...
no aviation weather concerns, VFR conditions and just a few
afternoon cumulus around 5-7kft expected. Sfc winds southeast 4-8kts thru
midnight when they go to SW 2-5kts, then west-northwest 4-8kts after 15z
thurs.

//Atl confidence...18z update...
high confidence on all elements.

Snelson

&&

Climate...

Records for 09-23

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 102 1931 64 1947 72 1931 43 1918
1925 1913
katl 94 1931 61 1995 75 1931 45 1982
kcsg 100 1925 65 1929 74 1980 45 1983
1926
kmcn 98 1970 61 1897 74 1980 46 1999
1925




Records for 09-24

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 103 1931 59 1995 72 1940 30 1928
1931
1925
katl 93 1980 56 1995 73 1980 45 1990
1931
kcsg 100 1921 61 1995 74 2009 47 1982
1975
kmcn 96 1993 59 1995 73 1980 44 1967
1961 1930
1931




Records for 09-25

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 96 1931 59 1989 70 2018 42 1928
1980
1931
katl 93 2010 57 1989 74 2018 45 1887
kcsg 101 1931 60 1989 74 1988 48 1990
1928
kmcn 96 1993 59 1989 73 2018 45 1990
1961 1988
1980




Records for 09-26

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 96 1925 59 1924 71 1904 45 2001
1950
katl 90 1986 59 1940 72 2018 43 2001
1911
kcsg 99 1921 65 1974 74 1931 48 2001
kmcn 96 2018 65 1974 72 2018 46 1964
1970 1940 2005
1976




Records for 09-27

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 94 1954 62 1949 70 1999 44 1940
1933 1996
1976
katl 93 1954 62 1937 73 1911 44 1940
1879
kcsg 97 1904 65 1948 75 1998 48 1975
1956
kmcn 94 1986 65 1937 73 2005 45 1899
1970 1998
1958 1939




Records for 09-28

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 95 1911 52 1957 72 1999 42 1947
katl 93 1986 55 1957 74 1911 42 1967
kcsg 98 1904 64 1957 75 1998 48 1985
1942
kmcn 96 1986 60 1957 74 1999 45 1985
1906

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 60 90 67 90 / 0 0 5 0
Atlanta 63 90 70 90 / 0 0 5 5
Blairsville 55 83 60 82 / 0 10 10 0
Cartersville 61 91 67 90 / 0 5 10 0
Columbus 64 92 69 95 / 0 0 5 20
Gainesville 62 88 68 90 / 0 0 5 0
Macon 60 91 66 94 / 0 0 5 5
Rome 59 91 66 89 / 0 10 10 0
Peachtree City 59 91 68 92 / 0 0 5 5
Vidalia 63 91 66 95 / 5 0 0 5

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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