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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
100 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Updated for aviation...

Previous discussion... /issued 720 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019/

Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...

Hot and dry conditions will persist through Tuesday night as the
area remains locked under the influence of the persistent upper
ridge centered over the mid-south. A very weak surface front will
dip southward into north Georgia and wash out on Tuesday.
Unfortunately, this will bring no sensible weather changes.
Temperatures will again soar into the mid to upper 90s areawide
outside of the mountain elevations.

More noticeable changes lie ahead just outside of the short-term
forecast period. A wedge front will be approaching the area from the
northeast by Wednesday morning with the Promise of at least
marginally cooler air in the long-term forecast period.

Rain shower

&&

Records for 09-17

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 101 1931 64 1946 72 1957 49 2001
1927 1985
katl 97 1927 60 1946 75 1991 52 1961
1927
kcsg 104 1927 66 1979 76 1927 53 1961
kmcn 98 2018 64 1946 73 1980 49 2001
1972 1971
1925 1957

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...

Still no significant weather concerns and dry weather seen with 12z
guidance in the long term period.

High amplitude pattern to remain in place thru Friday with deepening
trough in the western conus, positively-tilted upper ridge over the
mid-south, and upper troughing along the East Coast. With strong
subsidence over New England and mid-Atlantic states Wed-thurs, sfc
high pressure will build in from the NE into Georgia on Wed and
drier air Wed night. Temps, especially at night, will be much cooler
than we've seen last several days. Could be a few showers and
possibly some storms on Wed afternoon as wedge front moves in, but
coverage should be low. Current Storm Prediction Center day 3 outlook currently has no
thunder. 4km NAM nest does show potential for a ribbon of higher
MLCAPE over 1000 j/kg, but any strong convection remains just to our
south. Low clouds may inhibit sfc heating and SBCAPE. Will keep
slight chance thunderstorms and rain in forecast for Wed but less concerned about
anything strong or severe.

No chance for precip for the rest of the period as upper ridge
slides very slowly south. Westerlies shouldn't push close enough to
northwest Georgia for any chance of clouds or precip until Sunday. And
while the westerlies approach, S to SW low level flow will warm
temps back up to the 90s starting Sunday. Great.

Snelson

&&

Aviation...
06z update...
VFR conditions are expected to continue across the forecast
area. Patchy MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible until about
12-14z. Surface winds will be calm or light and variable to
start then north-northwest less than 10 kts during the day Tuesday.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium to high confidence for all elements.

Bdl

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 95 70 83 63 / 10 10 20 10
Atlanta 95 73 89 67 / 10 10 10 5
Blairsville 87 64 79 58 / 10 10 20 10
Cartersville 96 70 90 66 / 10 10 10 5
Columbus 99 73 95 70 / 5 5 10 5
Gainesville 93 70 83 64 / 10 10 20 5
Macon 97 72 91 66 / 5 5 20 5
Rome 96 69 91 66 / 5 5 10 5
Peachtree City 96 71 91 66 / 10 10 10 5
Vidalia 97 73 89 65 / 0 5 20 5

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

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