Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 200735
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
335 am EDT Fri Sep 20 2019
Short term /today through Saturday/...
Seasonal temperatures have taken hold through the forecast area
after the passage of yesterday's wedge front. Through the short term
forecast period, ridging aloft will center over the region with
surface high pressure situated east of the southern Appalachians.
Subsidence and dry air will limit precip and cloud cover over the
area with clear to mostly clear skies, and light easterly winds with
occasional breezy gusts in the afternoons. High temperatures in the
low- to mid-80s will be around the seasonal norm, but tomorrow's
temps will begin to increase over the next several days.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
The long term portion begins with continued dry conditions across
the area. High pressure will be anchored off the Carolinas with a
return flow off the Atlantic continuing to moderate the airmass
and send temps back to the upper 80s Sun afternoon and around 90s
for southeast portions.
The high will begin to break down Monday as mid level high also
retreats to the Southern Plains states. This will allow a weak
frontal boundary to swing into the northern portions of the state.
Most of the energy with this system will swing eastward across the
Great Lakes states and north of our area. Will will see
precipitable water increase to around 1.80 inches and some very
low most unstable cape values for far northern sections. Will go
20 pops for now but even this may be a stretch given the drier
European model (ecmwf) solution.
Front clears the area through Tue but no relief from the heat as
mid level ridge remains in place and temps stay in the 90s. Strong
shortwave moving through the Tennessee Valley Thu may be enough to
generate some isolated pops for the northern tier once again given
more favorable moisture and instability profile.
VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies expected
through the forecast period. Winds will remain east at 4-9kts
with occasional gusts.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
high confidence on all elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 81 59 85 59 / 0 0 5 0
Atlanta 83 62 86 62 / 0 0 5 0
Blairsville 76 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 5
Cartersville 85 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 86 64 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 81 59 85 59 / 0 0 5 5
Macon 85 63 87 61 / 0 5 5 0
Rome 85 59 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 84 61 87 60 / 0 0 5 0
Vidalia 86 65 90 63 / 5 5 5 0