Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 251152
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
752 am EDT sun Aug 25 2019
..12z aviation forecast discussion...
Previous discussion... /issued 441 am EDT sun Aug 25 2019/
Short term /today through Monday/...
Noticeably cooler conditions are in the offing through the short
term forecast period as a wedge of high pressure will be entrenched
at the surface. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be lower this
afternoon for much of the area given the cooler and more stable
airmass behind The Wedge front. The better chance for any scattered
activity will thus be along the western periphery of the County Warning Area with
otherwise mostly cloudy conditions for areas farther east. The
strong thunderstorm potential will also be reduced this afternoon
given the more stable airmass.
The Wedge will remain in place at the surface through Monday, though
it will begin to gradually weaken. Rain chances will also be
increasing markedly from tonight into Monday as an upper trough
advances eastward towards the area. This will provide the focus for
increasing showers and thunderstorms from the west through the day
Monday. As pws will remain elevated above 2 inches, any slow moving
thunderstorm activity will continue to provide the risk for locally
heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns.
High temperatures are forecast to run some 5 to nearly 10 degrees
below normal today and Monday under anticipated mostly cloudy skies
and cool easterly surface flow.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
The Wedge should be breaking down Tuesday as an upper trough
crosses the southeast. The upper dynamics and remaining tropical
moisture should still support likely pops for Tuesday. For
Wednesday...the flow begins to turn more northwest as a broad
trough deepens over the Great Lakes and into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
area. GFS/European model (ecmwf) agree that drier air will spread into the
southeast for the last half of the long term. Pops begin to taper
off after Wednesday and have removed pops altogether for north Georgia
Thursday and Friday. By Saturday it looks like the moisture will
start to surge northward again so have kept pops area wide.
Temperatures should be more toward normal over most of the
forecast area for the long term.
widespread IFR/MVFR cigs will persist through the morning hours
with at least MVFR cigs likely through 16-18z. Some improvement to
high MVFR or VFR is possible thereafter. MVFR to IFR cigs again
become more likely after 04-06z. While isolated to widely
scattered showers are possible today, highest coverage is
anticipated over western Georgia. Shra/tsra chances increase from
the west from tonight into Monday. Winds will remain from the east
at 8-12 kts through the period.
//Atl confidence...12z update...
high confidence on winds.
Medium confidence on other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 78 66 81 67 / 20 20 40 40
Atlanta 79 68 79 69 / 30 40 60 50
Blairsville 73 61 70 62 / 30 40 60 40
Cartersville 80 68 78 68 / 40 50 60 50
Columbus 83 71 84 72 / 40 40 60 50
Gainesville 78 66 76 67 / 30 40 50 40
Macon 83 70 85 71 / 30 30 60 40
Rome 80 67 78 69 / 50 50 70 50
Peachtree City 81 68 81 69 / 30 40 70 50
Vidalia 86 71 89 72 / 20 20 50 30