Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kffc 140611 
afdffc

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
111 am EST Thu Nov 14 2019



..06z aviation discussion...



Previous discussion... /issued 904 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019/

Update...
no changes to the forecast for the overnight with
increasing clouds expected and rain chances increasing
during the day Thursday.

Bdl

Previous discussion... /issued 600 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019/

Update for aviation...

Previous discussion... /issued 251 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2019/

Short term /tonight through Thursday night/...
ridging will continue over the southeast through tonight...however
the ridge will drift eastward across the area overnight. Meanwhile
an upper trough will deepen into the lower MS River Valley. Easterly
upslope flow will aid in moisture return late tonight with clouds
increasing during the early morning. Rain is expected to spread
northward during the day Thursday and continue into Thursday night
with a surface low developing in the northern Gulf. The atmosphere
looks stable with little or no cape available so thunder has not
been mentioned. Temperatures will again drop to freezing or below
tonight but this could be moderated depending on timing of cloud
formation. Frost/freeze program has ended area wide since most
places have reached mid to upper 20s. A pns has been issued for
this.

41

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
no major changes made to the extended forecast. As the extended
period begins, the forecast area will be in continued
southwesterly flow and increasing deep moisture ahead of an upper-
level trough approaching from the west. Scattered to numerous
showers will also be ongoing ahead of the trough. By Friday, this
trough is expected to deepen into a cutoff low as it moves into
southern Alabama, and will continue to move eastward towards
southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle by Saturday. Some
discrepancies remain in the model guidance with respect to timing
and the track of the cutoff low, with the latest GFS solution
moving the cutoff low northeastward towards the Carolina coast by
Saturday afternoon and the latest European model (ecmwf) solution moving the system
more slowly towards the east Florida coast by Saturday night. As
a result, GFS moves precipitation out of north and central Georgia
by Saturday morning while European model (ecmwf) indicates precipitation will
linger until Saturday evening. Model guidance is trending towards
a wetter solution with greater precipitation coverage. As a
result, rain chances Thursday night into Friday have been
increased to high-end likely pops across much of the forecast area
with diminishing pops across the far northern tier. Pops will
then diminish later Friday into Saturday, given the remaining
uncertainty with the timing of the system. Rainfall amounts
associated with this system currently look to be highest across
east-central Georgia, where amounts of 1-2 inches are possible.

On Sunday, an upper level ridge and surface high pressure build in
over the southeastern conus, promoting dry conditions throughout the
day. Another trough then quickly approaches the forecast area in the
early parts of next week, moving over north and central Georgia on
Monday and Tuesday. Moisture associated with this system is
currently expected to be fairly limited, and no more than slight
chance pops are anticipated on Monday and Monday night as a result.
Rainfall totals are furthermore looking negligible, with little to
no measurable precipitation expected at this time. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the extended period. High temperatures of 10-
15 degrees below climatological averages (in the low to mid 50s
across the area) on Friday will steadily increasing each day to 0-5
degrees below average (in the low to mid 60s across the area) by
Tuesday. Lows will similarly run just below average, with
temperatures each morning in the 30s and 40s across the forecast
area.

King/01

Climate...

Records for 11-14

Max temperature min temperature
station high low high low
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
kahn 84 1931 38 1976 62 1961 23 2013
1906
katl 80 1955 35 1906 65 1879 22 1969
kcsg 84 1924 46 1976 65 1961 20 1907
1969 1929
kmcn 83 1955 44 1911 65 1929 21 2013



Aviation...
06z update...
MVFR ceilings beginning to creep up from the south and have already
settled in over the southern taf sites, and expected to reach
northern sites around 10-12z. Ceilings will range around MVFR to low-
VFR through the day on Thursday with rain chances increasing
continuously throughout the day. East-north winds 10 kts or less tonight
and Thursday.

//Atl confidence...06z update...
high confidence for all elements to start.
Low to medium confidence for ceiling heights on Thursday.

Thiem

&&



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 44 37 52 39 / 40 70 40 40
Atlanta 45 39 50 38 / 40 70 30 30
Blairsville 47 34 49 31 / 20 50 30 20
Cartersville 47 37 51 33 / 30 50 20 20
Columbus 49 41 53 40 / 60 80 40 40
Gainesville 44 38 52 38 / 30 60 30 30
Macon 47 40 53 41 / 60 80 50 50
Rome 48 36 53 33 / 20 40 20 10
Peachtree City 45 38 50 36 / 40 70 40 40
Vidalia 53 44 58 44 / 40 80 60 50

&&

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations