Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kffc 220745
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
345 am EDT sun Sep 22 2019
Short term /today through Saturday/...
Here we are again. Yet another day of quiet, pleasant weather, with
high pressure dominating the region, no rain, light winds, and
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. A beautiful day, but it
makes for a rather Boring discussion.
Tomorrow, Marks the first day of autumn, however, if you'll be
outside you would never guess it! The 500 hpa ridge that has been
persistently centered over the region will begin to flatten out as a
mid-level trough moved through the Midwest and a cold front begins
to just barely move into the far northwestern portions of the
forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. For the first time in a while a
slight chance of rain exists in the short term forecast, although
it's only for the far northwest corner of Georgia at the far end of the
forecast period, Aka, late Monday afternoon. The warming trend will
also continue ahead of the frontal boundary with highs starting to
return to the low 90s for a large portion of the forecast area,
which is closer to 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
The long term portion begins as a frontal boundary sags into the
area. Moisture will be very limited, especially according to the
European model (ecmwf) which continues to show no precip associated with the
frontal feature. GFS is more aggressive with 1.90 inch
precipitable water entering the far northern tier late Monday
evening. Instability will be close to non existent with the very
warm mid layers in place. Will use a blend but lean toward the
drier solution which yields just a small sliver of 20 pops.
Front moves through the area through Tuesday but any cool off will
be no more than a degree or 2 and portions of central Georgia will see
no relief with highs in the mid 90s. Some enhanced instability
Tue afternoon for central Georgia in vicinity of the front but at this
time, given continued dry conditions per ECMWF, will keep grids
pop free for this time period.
Remainder of the long term will feature at times some upper level
energy moving across mainly the northern tier. However, moisture
looks even more limited with these runs as compared with last
nights and have chosen to just indicate a dry forecast for the
grids as well. Low to mid 90s will be the rule and this will take
US right up to the end of the month with these continued hot
Aviation... 06z update... VFR condition expected through the taf
period for all sites. No precip expected with only few050
possible for cloud cover tomorrow afternoon. Winds expected to be
calm overnight becoming light out of the southeast tomorrow
afternoon. Tomorrow night winds will once again be mostly calm but
any winds that do sustain themselves will shift out of the
southwest around 06z.
//Atl confidence...06z update...
medium on morning ceilings/visibilities in east central Georgia.
Medium on tomorrow night's wind shift timing.
High on all other elements.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Athens 87 61 90 67 / 0 0 0 10
Atlanta 87 65 90 69 / 0 0 0 10
Blairsville 82 56 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
Cartersville 88 60 91 66 / 0 0 10 10
Columbus 89 65 93 68 / 0 5 0 10
Gainesville 86 62 89 67 / 0 0 5 10
Macon 87 63 91 67 / 0 5 0 5
Rome 89 60 91 65 / 0 0 10 10
Peachtree City 88 61 91 67 / 0 0 0 10
Vidalia 89 64 92 67 / 0 5 0 5