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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
214 PM CDT sun Aug 18 2019

Short term (tonight through Monday night)...
high pressure is centered over the SW half of Texas today, further
prolonging the long dry spell and elevated heat indices. We're
expecting to see a westward shift of the 500 mb level ridge tonight into
Monday, and this could more Gulf modified air into the I-35 corridor
areas with some isolated convection Monday afternoon over parts of
the coastal prairies. Highs and heat index values are expected to be
near persistence, but ambient temps east of I-35 could drop a degree
or two over eastern counties. A sea-breeze could become more
prominent as 700 mb winds become more in line with the direction
of the surface to 850 mb winds.

&&

Long term (tuesday through sunday)...
while the westward shift in the 500 mb ridge could help with slightly
lower high temps, it's position doesn't shift enough to bring any
meaningful cooling or rain chances. The axis of the ridge strengthens
a bit over OK Tuesday, and that shift keeps the deeper moisture over
la from migrating west in the 700 mb flow. Thus will round out the 7
day forecast with more persistence blended into the blended guidance,
which tries to drag US back to our climatological norms for Max
temps late in the forecast period. The ecm remains the model choice
until it isn't, as the GFS has been trying too hard to generate ridge
weaknesses in the 5-10 day time-frame. There is a legitimate chance
for a mid level tropical feature to move up the western Gulf Coast
and potentially impact south Texas Thursday through Saturday, but the
GFS runs are trending drier as the time gets closer to the present;
thus might as well stick with the ecm solution that keeps the mid-
level feature far enough offshore to be of a minimal impact.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Austin Camp Mabry 79 101 78 100 77 / 0 - 0 - 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 100 76 99 75 / 0 - 0 10 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 100 76 100 74 / 0 - 0 10 0
Burnet Muni Airport 76 99 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
del Rio Intl Airport 79 103 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 78 99 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 77 101 76 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 77 100 76 99 74 / 0 - 0 10 0
La Grange - Fayette regional 79 99 77 98 76 / 0 20 0 20 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 79 100 78 99 76 / 0 - 0 - 0
Stinson Muni Airport 79 102 78 101 76 / 0 - 0 - 0

&&

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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