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fxus64 kepz 152055 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
155 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019

Synopsis...
a warm and dry weekend is expected with high temperatures over The
Lowlands warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A couple of
storm systems will affect the region starting late Tuesday and
continuing through the end of the week with rain showers expected
areawide almost daily. Temperatures by the end of the week will
cool down to near to about 5 degrees below normal.

&&

Discussion...
short term...
an upper trough over California continues to bring high level
moisture up in broad southwest flow. One short wave just west of the
Baja Peninsula will move across the County Warning Area overnight with some
thickening higher clouds. Models show relative humidity decreasing Saturday
afternoon, so we may be able to see some afternoon sun. With a
little more afternoon sun and slight increase in h85 temps, expect
high temps Saturday to be about 3-5 degrees warmer than today.

&&

Long term...
long term starts out with slowly warming temperatures for Sunday
through Tuesday with dry conditions. Winds will start out east to
southeast early Sunday behind a weak cold front, but this
basically washes out through the day Sunday and highs will be at
or warmer than Saturday most locations except possibly far eastern
zones. Low level west winds start up Monday and become more
southwesterly Tuesday as upper low that is going to be cutting off
near baja starts to lift out with the kicker moving in from the
Pacific northwest. This system will be tapping decent subtropical
moisture and with models coming into decent agreement with
handling of these two lows, start with low pops over SW nm
Tuesday and spreading across area with high chance pops Tuesday
night with weakening low lifting out of the southwest.

Next low moving out of the Pacific northwest will be cutting off
over California or just off the coast. GFS is further east and more
progressive with this low while the ec is off shore and slower
moving it through. Given the recent pattern of these cutoff lows
and looking at the GFS ensembles, think the result will be closer
to the ec and will go warmer and linger some pops a little longer
through Friday across area. There may be some thunder around, but
think it will be fairly isolated with plenty of cloud cover around
through period and best chance with initial system lifting out Tue
night/Wed. Raised highs from the mex/nbm guidance a couple of
degrees later in the period with just a little snow possible late
in week over elevations above 7000-7500 feet. May get a breezy day
late in the period as second system lifts out and moves north of
area.



&&

Aviation...18z taf cycle
VFR expected through the period. Higher clouds will be on the
increase as baja upper low spreads high level moisture in, with
broken/overcast decks at fl200 and above. Surface winds should remain 10
kts or less.

&&

Fire weather...
temperatures will be warming over the coming days with relative
humidities falling into the mid teens to mid 20s for most
locations by Monday. Winds will be on the light side for the short
term which will generally limit vent rates to poor to fair this
weekend. A couple of systems will affect the region starting
Tuesday and continuing to affect region through the end of the
week which will bring a good chance for showers areawide and even
a few thunderstorms. Breezy conditions are possible late in the
week as upper low moves north of area and cools temperatures down
below normal.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 41 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 38 65 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 36 66 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 35 64 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 32 56 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 40 66 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 39 65 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 35 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 35 69 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 42 67 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 36 66 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 39 70 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 41 63 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 39 69 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 37 66 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 41 67 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 32 66 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 36 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 36 69 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 37 64 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 35 63 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 32 60 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 33 59 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 33 65 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 38 67 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 37 65 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 29 65 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 35 66 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 29 68 30 76 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 30 69 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 38 65 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 36 72 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 33 71 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 39 73 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 42 69 43 72 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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