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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
324 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Synopsis...
moisture will slowly increase over the next couple of days,
leading to an uptick in thunderstorm activity across parts of the
area Tuesday through Saturday. Afternoon high temperatures will
remain near 100 degrees over much of The Lowlands through Tuesday,
but will drop back down to the the middle 90s by mid-week. Drier
and warmer conditions look to settle back in again by the
beginning of next week, as high pressure aloft shifts back towards
The Four Corners region, and northeasterly flow aloft pulls drier
air back into the area.

&&

Discussion...
the subtropical ridge is centered over far southeastern New Mexico
this afternoon, and oriented SW to NE. Flow around this ridge
given this orientation is cutting off the deeper subtropical
moisture from deep in the Sierra madres, leaving a broad area of
recycled mid and upper-level moisture over much of New Mexico and
West Texas. At the surface, weak troughing is keeping dry, light
west to SW flow in place over most of the area, and dewpoints have
fallen into the 30s over most areas west of a outside of the
Tularosa basin and ep/Hudspeth counties. Any isolated
thunderstorms that manage to develop this afternoon will likely
be over Otero or Hudspeth counties, but chances are slim.

Low level moisture will increase tonight as southeast low level flow
returns to the area, reaching the Continental Divide by morning.
Weak low level convergence looks to set up between The Divide and
the Rio Grande in the afternoon, and this will likely be a focus
for convection initiation late in the afternoon (along with
orographic uplift in the Sacramento Mountains and Gila region).

Low level moisture will continue to increase on Wednesday and
Thursday, with precipitable water values generally running around 1.25 inches,
with moderate instability. The relative "uptick" in thunderstorm
activity (relative to this year, the pattern is really nothing
spectacular) looks to sputter again by the weekend as the
subtropical ridge migrates back towards The Four Corners, allowing
drier/Continental air aloft to push in from the northeast. Precip
may barely hang on in the far west portion of the County Warning Area Sunday and
Monday.

&&

Aviation...valid 20/00z-21/00z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period with few-
sct100-120 sct-bkn150-200. Winds west to northwest at or below 12kts but shifting
around to the east to southeast after 12z. Winds mainly east to
southeast over eastern areas entire period. Isolated 3-5sm -tsra
bkn050-070 east of the Rio Grande through 06z, then mainly over
area mountains after 18z.

&&

Fire weather...
upper high is pushing east of area and will allow for southeast flow
to bring better moisture into the region for the remainder of the
week. Best storm chances tomorrow are over area mountains, but by
Wednesday, chances will spread onto The Lowlands. The main threat
with these storms will be locally heavy rain and gusty winds.
Temperatures will start to fall back to near normal with this
moisture increase which will also help to raise minimum relative
humidities into the 20s over The Lowlands and 30s in area mountains.
Vent rates tomorrow will mainly be good to very good with the
increasing southeast flow, but as the week progresses, winds will
decrease and vent rates look to fall to poor to good.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 77 100 76 97 / 0 20 10 10
Sierra Blanca 71 96 69 93 / 20 10 10 0
Las Cruces 72 98 70 95 / 0 30 20 10
Alamogordo 72 100 69 95 / 10 30 10 30
Cloudcroft 56 77 54 72 / 20 50 20 50
Truth or Consequences 72 98 70 94 / 0 20 30 40
Silver City 65 94 65 87 / 0 20 30 50
Deming 70 100 71 95 / 0 30 40 20
Lordsburg 70 101 71 97 / 0 0 20 20
west El Paso Metro 77 101 76 97 / 0 20 10 10
Dell City 73 101 71 97 / 20 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 77 103 77 98 / 10 10 10 0
Loma Linda 72 94 71 92 / 10 20 10 20
Fabens 77 100 76 97 / 0 20 10 0
Santa Teresa 74 99 73 96 / 0 20 10 10
White Sands hq 75 99 73 95 / 0 30 20 20
Jornada range 71 98 69 94 / 0 30 20 20
Hatch 71 100 70 95 / 0 30 30 30
Columbus 73 100 72 96 / 0 30 30 10
Orogrande 73 98 72 95 / 0 20 10 10
Mayhill 61 85 59 82 / 10 30 10 50
Mescalero 60 86 58 81 / 10 60 20 50
Timberon 60 84 58 81 / 10 20 10 30
Winston 61 90 59 85 / 0 30 30 60
Hillsboro 68 97 66 92 / 0 40 30 50
spaceport 70 98 68 94 / 0 30 40 30
Lake Roberts 60 92 59 87 / 0 20 30 60
Hurley 65 96 65 89 / 0 20 40 40
cliff 64 102 65 96 / 0 10 20 40
Mule Creek 66 97 67 91 / 0 0 10 40
Faywood 67 95 67 89 / 0 30 40 40
Animas 69 102 70 97 / 0 0 20 20
Hachita 68 101 69 96 / 0 10 40 20
Antelope Wells 68 99 69 94 / 0 10 30 40
Cloverdale 67 95 68 90 / 0 10 10 50

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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