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fxus64 kepz 082054 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
154 PM MST sun Dec 8 2019

Synopsis...
an upper-level trough will bring increasing precipitation chances
to the Borderland beginning later tonight and early tomorrow
morning. Precipitation chances will last through Tuesday morning.
Snow levels will start around 9000 feet and gradually lower to
around 7500 feet by Tuesday morning. Quiet conditions will occur
Tuesday afternoon onwards with highs warming a few degrees each
day beneath partly to mostly sunny skies. Breezy conditions look
to return for next Sunday.

&&

Discussion...
short term...today through Monday afternoon...
a strong upper level trough located over central California will
slowly move into the lower Colorado basin by Monday morning. Ahead
of this system, increasing west-southwesterly flow will continue to
bring increasing upper and mid-level moisture to our area tonight,
with a few scant and light showers possible this afternoon and
evening. Precip chances will increase markedly in the pre-dawn hours
as precipitable water values climb to around 0.80 (gfs) to 0.90 (nam) in The
Lowlands. Upper level divergence and differential positive vorticity advection will also
strengthen as the upper trough, possibly even a closed low, swings
into southern Arizona and takes on a less strongly-positive tilt.
Precip looks to be widespread and steady over much of the area from
about 12z Mon to 00z Tue.

Snow levels will remain rather high, over 9,000 feet through the
night, though rain/snow mix will be possible above 8,000 feet (but
with fairly light qpf). Temperatures aloft will slowly drop through
the day on Monday, with snow levels hovering around 8,000 to 8,500
feet through much of the morning, and down to around 7,500 feet by
evening. Snow amounts may approach 1 to 3 inches in the highest
elevations of the Sacramento Mountains and Gila region by
early Monday evening, highest above 9,000 feet.

&&

Hardiman

Long term...Monday night through next Sunday...
by Monday night, the upper-level low/trough will be nearing the
Arizona/nm state line with an associated surface front ahead of it,
roughly running through central Sierra County southward towards
the Luna/Dona Ana County line. A line of showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm will associate with this front, pushing eastward as
the evening progresses with isolated to widely scattered showers
continuing behind the line associated with the core of the upper-
level low. The low should begin to exit our County Warning Area by Tuesday morning
with precip ending across our far eastern zones by sunrise. I did
keep low pops in our central zones as a nod to several GFS
ensemble members, which keep the precip in the picture longer than
the operational models. Snow levels by Monday evening should hang
out around 7500', but that may be enough to let 3-6" accumulate
over Cloudcroft by the end of the event. We may need some
headlines for the Sacramento mtns, but that decision can be made
on this evening or tonight's shift.

Upper-level ridging will follow quickly behind the low as it moves
into the plains. Temperatures will warm each day as a result, back
above normal for most locations by Thursday. A system will move
through the top of the ridge, clipping our cwa, but it will do
little more than provide some extra cloud coverage ahead of it on
Wednesday as well as turn winds to the north in its wake for
Thursday. The associated front/trough passage will have no cold
air associated with it, which is why highs will continue their
slow upward trek each day. Ridging quickly resumes behind this
clipper system late Thursday. The quiet conditions Wednesday
morning may be favorable for fog development in the valleys,
especially if our preceding rain event gives US some heavier
rainfall totals. Otherwise, quiet conditions will prevail
Wednesday through Saturday.

Our weather looks to become a bit more active starting next
Sunday as a low-amplitude short-wave trough passes from The Four
Corners region through northern nm. Lee troughing will commence
over the OK/Texas Panhandle, forming a ~1000 mb low. The location and
the strength of the low suggest only breezy conditions across the
Borderland for Sunday. The more notable thing occurs on day 8 as
the S/W trough forces a decent cold front through the area sending
our highs back below normal. The frontal passage looks dry
though.

&&

Brown

Aviation...00z taf cycle
widespread mid-level clouds will slowly lower overnight with broken-overcast
090-110 prevailing at most locations to start the forecast cycle,
lowering to around 070-090 by 06z. Precip chances will ramp up
considerably after 09z, with ceilings dropping to MVFR conditions
before 12z in southern New Mexico, and holding off until 15-17z at
elp. MVFR and brief IFR conditions will be possible later in the
afternoon Monday.

&&

Hardiman

Fire weather...
a strong upper level system currently over California will approach the
area, bringing with it increasing rain chances and relative humidity values. Best
chances for rain look to occur late tonight/early tomorrow morning
with a lull in the precip anticipated during the afternoon hours
Monday with scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
expected to move through all zones Monday evening. Precip should
wrap-up by Tuesday morning with quiet conditions expected by
Tuesday afternoon. Min relative humidity values near or above 70 percent for
tomorrow and mainly around 40 for Tuesday. Vent rates look poor
for all periods and locations with the exception of southwest nm
for tomorrow where good vent rates are anticipated.

&&

Brown

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 50 52 40 55 / 70 80 50 20
Sierra Blanca 48 51 37 50 / 60 80 60 30
Las Cruces 47 50 36 53 / 60 70 50 10
Alamogordo 47 51 34 55 / 60 70 50 20
Cloudcroft 33 34 25 37 / 70 70 60 30
Truth or Consequences 45 49 34 53 / 30 60 40 10
Silver City 41 42 32 52 / 70 80 30 0
Deming 44 50 34 55 / 70 70 40 10
Lordsburg 47 49 34 54 / 80 80 30 0
west El Paso Metro 49 52 40 56 / 70 80 50 10
Dell City 48 55 35 53 / 60 70 50 30
Fort Hancock 51 54 38 57 / 70 80 50 20
Loma Linda 45 50 37 50 / 80 80 50 20
Fabens 51 54 38 56 / 70 80 50 20
Santa Teresa 47 50 35 54 / 70 80 50 10
White Sands hq 48 51 39 55 / 60 70 50 10
Jornada range 46 50 34 54 / 60 60 50 10
Hatch 47 52 34 55 / 40 60 50 10
Columbus 48 51 37 55 / 70 80 50 10
Orogrande 46 51 35 54 / 70 70 60 20
Mayhill 39 42 28 48 / 60 60 60 30
Mescalero 37 39 27 45 / 70 70 60 30
Timberon 36 40 27 44 / 70 80 60 30
Winston 37 43 29 48 / 40 60 30 10
Hillsboro 43 48 32 54 / 40 70 30 10
spaceport 44 49 33 54 / 40 60 50 10
Lake Roberts 37 41 27 53 / 70 70 30 0
Hurley 42 44 31 53 / 70 70 30 0
cliff 41 49 26 58 / 70 70 20 0
Mule Creek 42 44 30 53 / 70 70 10 0
Faywood 42 47 34 53 / 60 70 30 10
Animas 47 50 34 55 / 70 70 30 0
Hachita 45 51 32 54 / 70 80 30 0
Antelope Wells 47 51 34 55 / 80 80 30 0
Cloverdale 44 48 34 52 / 80 80 30 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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