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fxus64 kepz 182202 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
302 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2019

Synopsis...
upper low just off the Baja Peninsula will begin streaming
abundant moisture up over the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon over
the New Mexico bootheel and then spreading to all areas of the
Borderland Tuesday night. The showers should end briefly on
Wednesday, but then start again Wednesday night and Thursday as
another upper low sweeps across northern New Mexico. Friday
through Sunday should be dry with plenty of sunshine and
seasonable temperatures.

&&

Discussion...
short term...tonight and Tuesday.
Tonight just expect an increase in high clouds moving out of the
southwest ahead of baja low that has been spinning in that area for
several days. Warmer daytime temps and the increasing high clouds
should help to keep temperatures from bottoming out as much as
recent mornings.

Moisture will be increasing tomorrow and an initial shortwave will
begin to affect the southwest zones after 15z-18z. Expect to start
seeing precip moving into the bootheel during this time and
spreading across areas at least west of The Divide by 00z Wed. Weak
instability could lead to some isolated thunder as well. West to
southwest winds will allow temps to warm, but a little concerned as
to how much increasing thicker clouds will affect temps similar to
yesterday. Went near guidance north and east where precipitation
less likely to affect highs, but did cut down some to the southwest.

&&

Grzywacz

Long term...Tuesday night through Monday
models continue to show active weather first part of the period.
Upper low just west of the baja continues to stream moisture up to
the County Warning Area. Morning pws were around .3 inches and will approach one
inch by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Dynamics will also be on
the increase as some diffluence aloft develops Tuesday
afternoon/evening along with the lfq of 100kt jet. Modest
instability at the surface could kick off a few thunderstorms.
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning should be the best window with
perhaps a break in precipitation Wed afternoon/evening. One-half
to one inch of rain possible mainly west of Rio Grande Valley,
with lesser amounts to the east.

Thursday and Friday...
GFS/European model (ecmwf) both in good agreement on second upper low, moving it
across northern New Mexico late Thursday night. Should start
another period of showers, but much less moisture available than
with first low. Cooling aloft will bring snow levels down. For now
kept snow levels around 7500-8500 ft, lowest over the Gila. The
highest elevations of the Gila could see 3-6 inches over the two
days. Temperatures will cool to well below normal.

Friday night through Sunday...skies should begin clearing for a
pleasant weekend. Upper low opens up over the Great Plains with
lagging trough south of the County Warning Area Friday night. Temperatures should
warm back to near normal.

&&

Hefner

Aviation...00z taf cycle
VFR conditions expected to continue through the period, but there
will be increasing high clouds overnight with few-sct150-200 scattered-
bkn200-250 by 12z. After 12z upper low lifting out of the baja
region will bring increasing lower clouds to the region with areas
east of the Rio Grande falling to scattered-bkn080-100 bkn150-200 while
areas to the west will see scattered-bkn050-070 bkn100-120. Isolated to
scattered 3-5sm rain showers or -tsra bkn040-050 moving in from the
bootheel toward Deming after 18z.

&&

Grzywacz

Fire weather...
for tonight, relative humidity values look to recover in the
low to mid 40s across The Lowlands with mid to upper-50s in the
mountains. The exception will be the far southwest nm where moisture
will begin to increase ahead of a potent upper-level low now off the
Baja Coast. Relative humidity will bottom out near 20 on Tuesday though with
moisture continuing to slowly spread north and east meaning higher
relative humidity values over much of zone 111. Rain chances will also enter the
picture in that zone Tuesday afternoon. Vent rates will be poor to
fair courtesy light transport winds.

The weather changes rapidly beginning later Tuesday afternoon and
evening ahead of the baja low and a second low following closely on
its heels. Relative humidity values will climb as will rain chances area-wide.
Min relative humidity for Wednesday values near 50 percent will be common across
The Lowlands with much higher relative humidity in the mountains. Transport winds
will also increase to the 20 to 30 miles per hour range. Vent rates will
improve to the very good to excellent category in The Lowlands with
poor to fair in the mountains thanks to lower mixing heights.

&&

Brown

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 44 74 55 67 / 0 20 80 50
Sierra Blanca 41 74 49 68 / 0 0 70 50
Las Cruces 40 72 48 63 / 0 30 90 40
Alamogordo 39 71 48 65 / 0 10 80 70
Cloudcroft 36 55 41 46 / 0 20 80 70
Truth or Consequences 43 71 49 62 / 0 10 80 50
Silver City 41 66 45 53 / 0 50 90 80
Deming 39 72 47 63 / 0 50 80 40
Lordsburg 42 70 46 60 / 0 60 90 50
west El Paso Metro 42 74 55 67 / 0 20 80 40
Dell City 39 76 48 70 / 0 0 60 60
Fort Hancock 44 77 53 73 / 0 10 70 40
Loma Linda 44 70 52 62 / 0 20 70 50
Fabens 45 75 53 70 / 0 20 80 40
Santa Teresa 41 73 49 65 / 0 30 80 40
White Sands hq 46 73 54 65 / 0 20 80 60
Jornada range 41 73 47 63 / 0 20 80 50
Hatch 40 74 47 64 / 0 20 90 50
Columbus 43 73 49 65 / 0 60 80 30
Orogrande 40 72 47 65 / 0 10 80 70
Mayhill 36 66 44 57 / 0 20 80 70
Mescalero 34 65 43 54 / 0 20 80 70
Timberon 34 61 42 53 / 0 20 80 70
Winston 36 66 39 54 / 0 20 80 60
Hillsboro 39 70 47 59 / 0 20 80 60
spaceport 39 72 47 62 / 0 20 80 40
Lake Roberts 34 60 40 53 / 0 30 90 80
Hurley 39 68 44 56 / 0 50 90 70
cliff 32 70 40 58 / 0 40 90 80
Mule Creek 39 66 42 54 / 0 30 90 80
Faywood 41 70 46 57 / 0 50 90 70
Animas 41 72 47 63 / 10 60 80 30
Hachita 38 69 44 62 / 0 60 80 30
Antelope Wells 44 69 47 63 / 10 60 80 40
Cloverdale 46 65 48 56 / 10 60 80 40

&&

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