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fxus64 kepz 132057 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
157 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure followed by westerly winds will bring dry weather
with slowly warming temperatures across southern New Mexico and
West Texas Thursday through Saturday. A passing upper disturbance
may produce a few High Mountain snow showers and isolated rain
showers across the lower elevations for areas east of the Rio
Grande on Sunday. Westerly winds will then bring a return of
seasonably warm dry weather Monday through next Wednesday.

&&
Discussion...

Short term...
skies have basically cleared over the area with light winds and
slowly warming temperatures. Expect clear skies through most of the
period with just some increasing high clouds out west Thursday
afternoon. There is a weak cold front currently over Texas Panhandle
into far NE nm which will push through area after 06z. NAM is a
little stronger on winds than other models with frontal push, but
given the cold advection behind it not as impressive as recent
front, went with a compromise. Should not see much if any cool down
tomorrow except possibly areas east of the Rio Grande where there
could be a 5 to 8 degree drop.

Grzywacz

&&

Long term...Thursday night throuh Wednesday...
upper ridge axis will build slowly into the southern rockies
Thursday night and Friday with associated subsidence expected
across the region. However expect temperatures to stay around 5
degrees below normal as low level easterly winds will sustain
transport of modified Canadian air mass. In addition high clouds
may inhibit diurnal heating on Friday.

Deepening upper trough axis will subsequently movie into the Great
Basin region on Saturday supporting surface Lee cyclone
development over eastern New Mexico. This scenario will produce a
strengthening low and mid level westerly winds with inflow of dry
warmer air mass. Thus Saturday high temperatures should climb to a
little above normal with wind speeds near the breezy category.

Deep upper low will dive to the southeast across the County Warning Area Sunday
morning. Continental wind trajectories preclude significant
moisture advection but much of the County Warning Area will be in left front
quadrant of a 100 kt upper jet streak with strong differential positive vorticity advection
and deep upward motion. These factors may prove sufficient to
cause a few light rain showers and light mountain snows eastern
zones. A weak cold front will also lower Sunday high temperatures
around 5 degrees.

A dry northwest to west flow aloft and then at the surface Monday
and Tuesday will produce dry weather with slightly warming
temperatures Monday and Tuesday. A few rain showers are
forecasted for Wednesday as another upper trough enters the region
from the west.

Rogash

&&

Aviation...18z taf cycle
p6sm sky clear-few250 through the period. Winds generally westerly at or below
12kts through 06z then becoming east to northeast at 5-15kts from
NE to SW across Borderland.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure followed by westerly winds will bring dry weather
with slowly warming temperatures across southern New Mexico and
West Texas Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures around 5
degrees below normal Thursday and Friday increasing to slightly
above normal Saturday. A passing upper disturbance may produce
slight cooling and a few High Mountain snow showers and isolated
rain showers across the lower elevations for areas east of the Rio
Grande on Sunday. Rain and snow amounts will be light. Westerly
winds will then bring a return of seasonably warm dry weather
Monday through next Wednesday. Surface wind speeds around 10 to 20
mph most areas Thursday...less than 10 mph Friday...from 10 to 20
mph Saturday and 15 to 25 mph Sunday before diminishing on
Monday. Minimum humidity will be around 25 to 35 percent lower
elevations and 40 to 50 percent higher mountains.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 38 62 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 35 55 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 35 62 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 34 60 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 29 45 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 37 63 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 39 60 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 35 63 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 36 69 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 39 63 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 33 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 38 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 38 56 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 37 61 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 35 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 41 60 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 31 62 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 35 64 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 38 65 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 35 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 29 49 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 27 52 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 30 52 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 32 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 35 64 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 35 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 29 62 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 36 61 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 31 68 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 31 66 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 37 64 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 37 69 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 33 66 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 39 68 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 41 67 40 66 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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