Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kepz 180859 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
259 am MDT sun Aug 18 2019

Synopsis...
with the monsoon pattern temporarily interrupt by a deep westerly
flow across the region, the Borderland will be unseasonably dry
for a second straight day, with few to no storms expected today.
This also means unseasonably warm conditions with another 100
degree afternoon expected across many lowland locations. Modest
moisture begins to work back into the area Monday, but again most
locations will be hot and dry to start the week as storm coverage
remains isolated. Tuesday, through the rest of the work week,
modest gains in monsoon moisture should reintroduce daily
afternoon and evening storms to the region, with hit and miss
activity across The Lowlands, and scattered storms over the area
mountains.

&&

Discussion...
an upper trough remains anchored over the West Coast of the U.S.
With a broad zonal flow pattern downstream across the southwestern
U.S. Desert states. This pattern has flattened our persistent
upper ridge of high pressure and displaced it to our south. This
setup brings a sharp interruption to our monsoon season with much
drier air in place. The monsoon moisture does lurk nearby, with
plenty of moisture still staged to our south. For today, this
scenario will bring about another dry and hot day across the
region. We will see some mid and high cloud move over, debris from
large storm complexes over north mx. However we will still be too dry
to generate storms for all but possibly the nm bootheel and maybe
storms drifting out of mx into Hudspeth later today. Temperatures
will top out in triple-digit territory for many lowland locations.

Monday we begin to see the rise of the upper ridge to our south as
it gains strength and begins to build back north. This will back
the mid and upper-level winds to a more southerly trajectory which
will start to advect monsoon moisture out of mx back into S.
Nm/AZ. Moisture gains for Monday will be limited and modest
keeping rain/storm chances quite low. Tuesday Marks the demise of
the Lee surface trough keeping our winds westerly. The SW deserts
heat low will reverse our low-level winds to E/se. With this wind
shift we start to see some deeper moisture gains as Gulf
moisture works across Texas into our area.

From Tuesday on through the rest of the work week we see a
somewhat modest moisture channel stream into the region from the
S and southeast. Adequate moisture and instability should be back in
play for a return daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers
and storms. However this might be short-lived. By next weekend,
both the GFS and the ec models show the upper high centering to
our northwest. The flow around this pattern drives the moisture back
south and west of our region, bringing back what could be a drier
forecast.

&&

Aviation...valid 18/12z-19/12z...
VFR conditions expected through forecast period. Winds 270-310 at
05 to 12 kts. Visibility unlimited. Skies generally few-sct130 scattered-bkn250
with no impactful cigs expected. Nil thunderstorms and rain in vcty of terminals.
Slim chances for isolate ts over bootheel, S Hudspeth co. And eastern
slopes of sacs.

&&

Fire weather...
deep westerly flow has shoved monsoon moisture out of the region,
and today we sit in a hot and dry airmass. This means another day
with near zero rain chances across the region. Temperatures
continue warm and will top out around 10 degrees above normal for
mid-August. The drier conditions have lowered surface dewpoints
into the 30s, which means lower rh for both daytime mins and
nighttime maxs. Winds will continue to be fairly light from the
west over the next couple of days. Ventilation rates will improve
to fair to good in the afternoons. Min relative humidity will dip to around 20%
across our mountain zones with values in the lower teens lowlands.

The upper high shifts westward slightly Monday into the work week,
which reintroduces marginal moisture to the area. Daily rain chances
will resume on Tuesday, and continue through the remainder of the
week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountain
zones, and more isolated storms over The Lowlands.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 10
Sierra Blanca 99 71 98 69 / 0 0 10 20
Las Cruces 100 69 98 71 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 101 72 101 71 / 0 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 79 56 78 55 / 0 0 20 10
Truth or Consequences 97 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 91 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 100 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 98 68 98 70 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 103 76 102 76 / 0 0 0 10
Dell City 102 73 104 72 / 0 0 10 10
Fort Hancock 106 77 106 76 / 0 0 10 20
Loma Linda 96 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 10
Fabens 101 76 102 75 / 0 0 0 10
Santa Teresa 102 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 101 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 10
Jornada range 100 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 100 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 100 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 101 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 10
Mayhill 89 60 88 60 / 0 0 20 10
Mescalero 87 59 89 58 / 0 0 20 10
Timberon 87 58 86 58 / 0 0 10 10
Winston 88 59 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 96 66 98 68 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 98 68 98 69 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 90 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 93 64 94 65 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 98 61 100 63 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 92 64 94 65 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 93 66 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 98 66 98 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 98 66 98 68 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 96 66 97 67 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 91 64 92 66 / 10 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations