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fxus64 kepz 222134 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
334 PM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Synopsis...
we will see one more day of beautiful weather on Wednesday with
plenty of sun and temperatures near average. But then on Thursday
cold air will begin to pour into the region which will drop our
temperatures below average. By Friday morning most lowland
locations will see lows temperatures in the 30's. For the weekend
into the first part of next week, we will see warmer temperatures
with plenty of sun.

&&

Discussion...
our dry northwest flow has been giving US pleasant temperatures
with sunny skies and generally light winds and we will see that
for one more day on Wednesday. But then the changes come. A
strong cold front will barrel across the area on Thursday. High
temperatures for locations east of the Rio Grande will be during
the morning hours on Thursday as the front will push through
around noon. Afternoon temperatures will be well below average.
By Friday morning most lowland locations will see low temperatures
in the 30's. But right now, the forecast is not calling for a
widespread freeze for The Lowlands, but we will be close and it
will be something that we need to watch.

There is still a bit of a difference in the forecast through
Friday. The reason for the strong cold front on Thursday is an
upper level trough that will be dropping through Colorado and
eastern New Mexico on Friday. The GFS model keeps US dry and keeps
the system open and progressive, while the 00z run of the European model (ecmwf)
model has the trough closed off and dropping into southern New
Mexico. The ec version was much colder and wetter and was bringing
decent snow to the Sacramento Mountains and maybe even a
rain/snow mix to some of The Lowlands. But the latest 12z version
of the ec model does close the system off, but keeps most of the
precipitation east of our area. I did put just a slight chance
for precipitation in the Sacramento Mountains, for Thursday night
into Friday, but I kept the precipitation chances low and little
or snow accumulation since my confidence is low that we will see
any precipitation at all.

After Friday, the upper level trough will push well east and we
will be in another dry northwest flow aloft. The northwest flow
will allow for only a slow warm up. So our highs on Friday will be
15 to 20 degrees below average, but by Saturday, they will be
closer to 5 to 10 degrees below average and by Sunday we will see
near average high temperatures. For the first of next week, again
there are some differences in the extended models with the GFS
bringing another cold front into the region, while the European model (ecmwf) hangs
the front just to our east. For now, I have trended Monday and
tuesday's highs slightly lower. But for now it does look like we
will stay dry through at least the start of next week.

&&

Aviation...valid 23/00z-24/00z
p6sm and sky clear will persist
throughout period with occasional few250 possible. Winds will
generally be around 5kts with direction driven by drainage/upslope
of local terrain. Tafs could have just as easily been vrb for all
sites for whole period.

&&

Fire weather...
dry and warm weather will continue through tomorrow with wind
directions mainly favoring the diurnal upslope (day) and drainage
(night) for all locations. Winds will mainly be 5 to 15 mph with
highest winds at highest elevations. Expect min relative humidity values in the low
teens or high single digits. Changes arrive early Thursday morning
with the passage of a strong cold front. The front will bring breezy
northerly winds across much of The Lowlands. The strongest winds
will occur across eastern El Paso and western Otero counties,
downslope from the Otero Mesa with easterly winds 20 to 30 mph. The
Lowlands across the Front Range of the Black Mountains will also see
some breezier conditions with northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph.Relative humidity
values will increase behind the front thanks to temperatures 15 to
20 (isolated 25) degrees cooler. Min relative humidity values improve to 25 to 30
percent in The Lowlands for Thursday afternoon and 45 to 55 percent
in the mountains. Vent rates will remain generally poor to fair
through the period.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 46 80 49 66 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 39 77 45 60 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 37 79 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 39 77 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 29 59 29 44 / 0 0 0 10
Truth or Consequences 39 77 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 36 72 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 36 79 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 37 78 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
west El Paso Metro 45 80 50 67 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 39 81 45 61 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Hancock 44 83 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 43 75 46 60 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 45 81 49 67 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 40 79 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands hq 43 78 48 65 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada range 34 77 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 33 79 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 39 80 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 39 77 46 64 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 32 70 31 48 / 0 0 0 10
Mescalero 31 67 32 51 / 0 0 0 10
Timberon 31 65 34 48 / 0 0 0 10
Winston 27 72 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 36 77 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
spaceport 33 77 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 28 74 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 34 75 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
cliff 25 77 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 26 75 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 36 75 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 37 81 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 36 78 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 38 80 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 40 76 45 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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