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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
338 PM MDT sun Jul 21 2019

Synopsis...
low level moisture will persist across the Borderland and increase
some over the next couple of days. Upper high over southern New
Mexico will initially limit thunderstorms to mostly mountains
tonight. With the upper high moving to The Four Corners area
Monday and Tuesday, thunderstorm coverage will increase. Also the
potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will increase. After a
long stretch of hot Summer days, the rain and clouds will give US
a stretch of seasonal to cool temperatures for the week ahead. The
upper high will recenter over western Arizona toward the end of
the week. This will bring drier, limited thunderstorm days on
Wednesday and Thursday, before increasing thunderstorms again for
the weekend.

&&

Discussion...
not much change in the forecast per model output from the past day
or two. Upper high appears to be over southeast New Mexico. Low level
moisture persists though dewpoint inspection shows areas west of
the Rio Grande drying up a bit. Fair amount of afternoon
convection this afternoon, but again as in the past several days,
the convection is tied mostly to orographic lift. General storm
motion is light westerly so area down stream of mountains could
also see some thunderstorms tonight.

For Monday and Tuesday...low level surge that begins tonight will
continue through this period, increasing dewpoints back into the
50s. Meanwhile upstairs, the upper high will drift toward The Four
Corners Monday and even a bit further north on Tuesday. This will
moisten up the upper atmosphere as recycled moisture moves over
the area. Thus expect thunderstorm coverage to increase into
scattered/numerous categories. Pws will increase into 1.2-1.3 inch
range which is about 140% of normal. So it looks like main threat
will be some heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Storm motion,
though a bit higher than today, will still be relatively slow. Our
lengthy stretch of 100+ degrees days will end and a string of cool
to seasonable temperatures will begin.

Wednesday and Thursday...while low level moisture changes very
little or not at all, at upper levels the high begins moving
again; to south of The Four Corners Wednesday and then over
eastern Arizona Thursday. This will draw drier Continental air in
and decrease thunderstorm coverage-back mostly to isolated
mountain storms.

Friday into the weekend...the upper high continues west over to
western Arizona/Southern California. This will allow more recycled
moisture back into the area and an increase in thunderstorms
again. This resultant northerly trajectory often brings in upper
disturbances to enhance thunderstorms.

&&

Aviation...valid 22/00z-23/00z...
high pressure and limited moisture will maintain mostly dry
conditions and VFR categories at all taf sites and The Lowlands
through 06z. In higher mountainous terrain there will be areas of
thunderstorms and rain with MVFR and IFR ceilings and vsby through 06z. Sky conditions
overall few-sct150. With frontal passage tonight, sky conds becoming
broken-ovc090 after 06z starting at klru and kelp. Winds 240-300 at or below
10kts until shifting to 060-090 at 15kt's at 03z. Local vrb20g30kts
near thunderstorms and rain.

&&

Fire weather...
persistent high pressure aloft and relatively drier air remain over
the area for this afternoon, limiting afternoon rain chances to the
higher terrain. Above normal temperatures will keep min rhs under
20% for this afternoon. A cold front moves into the area early
Monday morning with increasing moisture and wind speeds. Wetting
rain chances improve Monday through Tuesday. Breezy conditions and
cooler temperatures are also expected on Monday. Min rhs rise up to
30% with ventilation rates good to very good. After a dry period mid
week, additional moisture will move into the area later in the week,
especially over the Gila region. This keeps rain chances good for
that area through next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 77 93 73 86 / 20 30 40 40
Sierra Blanca 66 88 64 78 / 20 20 40 50
Las Cruces 70 92 68 85 / 20 30 40 40
Alamogordo 68 92 65 85 / 30 50 50 50
Cloudcroft 51 69 51 65 / 40 70 70 70
Truth or Consequences 71 92 68 85 / 20 50 60 50
Silver City 66 88 63 79 / 20 70 50 60
Deming 70 94 68 86 / 20 30 40 20
Lordsburg 70 95 69 88 / 10 30 40 20
west El Paso Metro 76 93 73 86 / 20 30 40 40
Dell City 71 93 68 85 / 20 30 40 40
Fort Hancock 74 96 72 88 / 20 20 40 40
Loma Linda 71 87 68 79 / 20 30 40 40
Fabens 74 94 72 85 / 20 30 40 30
Santa Teresa 71 92 69 85 / 20 30 40 30
White Sands hq 74 92 70 85 / 20 40 50 50
Jornada range 69 92 67 85 / 20 40 50 40
Hatch 70 94 68 86 / 20 40 50 50
Columbus 74 95 72 87 / 20 30 40 20
Orogrande 70 91 68 84 / 30 40 50 50
Mayhill 55 77 55 72 / 40 70 70 70
Mescalero 54 78 54 74 / 40 70 60 70
Timberon 53 76 52 70 / 40 70 60 70
Winston 57 86 54 78 / 30 70 70 60
Hillsboro 66 92 64 83 / 20 60 60 60
spaceport 67 92 65 84 / 20 50 50 40
Lake Roberts 56 89 53 80 / 30 70 70 70
Hurley 64 90 63 81 / 20 60 50 50
cliff 59 93 54 84 / 20 60 60 50
Mule Creek 60 92 56 83 / 10 60 50 50
Faywood 68 89 65 80 / 30 60 60 50
Animas 68 97 68 89 / 20 30 50 20
Hachita 68 95 67 87 / 20 30 40 10
Antelope Wells 68 94 68 88 / 20 30 50 20
Cloverdale 66 89 66 82 / 20 40 40 20

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.

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