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fxus64 kepz 210610 
afdepz

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa nm
1110 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2019

Aviation...06z taf cycle

The period begins with few-sct050-070 across all terminals. A few
winds gusts between 20-25 kts will be possible at kdmn over the
next two hours otherwise light winds (5-10 kts). Expect increasing
low level cloud cover as the next system pushes in from the west
and lowers ceilings scattered-bkn040-060 between 13-16z. Rain showers
will begin around this time with visibilites dropping to around
3-4sm in more robust showers through the afternoon hours. VFR
conditions mainly but MVFR conditions are possible, especially at
ktcs, as ceilings lower to near 030. Surface winds will shift out
of the west/southwest during the afternoon hours Thursday as the
system pushes through. Kdmn has the potential to be have gusty
surface winds during this time. As the storm system departs
ceilings will lift and rain showers end around 00z leading to VFR
conditions.

Delizio/dhuyvetter

&&

Previous discussion...307 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2019...

Synopsis...
an upper low over Southern California will sweep across southern
Colorado Friday morning and then over the Southern Plains Friday
afternoon. This will bring another round of rain showers to the
area tonight and Thursday. With a cold front moving in Thursday,
temperatures will begin to fall. Snow levels over the mountains
will eventually fall to around 7500 feet. One to three inches of
snow is possible at these elevations. Skies clear over the weekend
as dry northwest flow develops. Below normal temperatures Thursday
and Friday will begin to moderate back toward normal by the end of
the workweek.

&&

Discussion...
short term...tonight through Thursday...
only isolated showers are expected throughout the remainder of this
afternoon and into this evening, but most locations, especially east
of the Rio Grande, will stay dry. This lull in rain is because we
are in between two upper-level storms. The storm responsible for
last night and this morning's rain is over SW Kansas while the next
system is spinning off the California coast with a vort lobe over western
Arizona. This vort lobe will be the focus for our next chance of rain as
DPVA and frontogenesis will act to create a line of showers with
isolated thunder, expected to reach the Arizona/nm around midnight or a
couple hours after. Any location should see a few hours of rain with
this band. The line of rain is expected to gradually progress
eastward throughout the day reaching cruces and elp between 9 and
noon. By the end of the short term, Thursday evening, rain should
be over our eastern zones, wrapping up over cruces and El Paso.
Temperatures will cool a few degrees behind the front and snow
levels will drop as well. The front will move with the line of
rain.

The mountains above 7500' could see some snow with the passage of
this rain band, but snow levels look higher today than on
yesterday's forecast. Rain is expected to change to snow as this
band passes, but it is not certain how quickly the transition to
snow will occur for locations over 7500' with considerable spreads
amongst model guidance. The going forecast is 1-3" of slushy snow
accumulations with impacts mid-day over the Gila and in the evening
over the Sacramento Mountains. If those locations see a quicker
transition to snow, higher amounts will be possible, and conversely,
a slower transition would mean lower totals. 1-3" is below advisory
criteria, but some minor impacts to roadways are possible.

&&
Brown

Long term...Thursday night through Wednesday...
the action continues for our area as we say adios to our rain
maker from this morning and welcome another precip maker tonight
and Thursday. Our new feature currently is an upper low over
Southern California with a cold front extending south over far
western Arizona. WV imagery shows a rather strong jet Max over the
front and likely curling back into the upper low-likely to
strengthen the front. The upper low will move to northern Arizona
Thursday afternoon, then over southern Colorado Friday morning and
finally out over the plains Friday afternoon. The front should
reach the New Mexico border early Thursday morning, the Rio Grande
Valley by early afternoon and then east of the County Warning Area by around
sunset Thursday. Showers should mostly end after fropa, but will
keep slight chance of showers in for Thursday evening, before
ending late night.

Friday through Tuesday...nice, quiet weather should return as dry
west/northwest flow moves in behind exiting trough as we wait next
Pacific upper trough and sub-tropical low near the area.
Temperatures will approach normal by Sunday and even above normal
Monday.

Wednesday and Thursday...both GFS/European model (ecmwf) remarkably similar with
sub-tropical low feeding more tropical moisture into our area for
another round of rain. Worth watching-another shot of anomalously
high pws.

&&
Hefner

Fire weather...
a few showers continuing tonight across the fire zones as very
weak disturbances aloft move across New Mexico. Large Pacific
upper low will sweep across southern Colorado Thursday night and
Friday. This will bring more showers into the zones, with snowfall
across the mountains zones. Generally 1-3 inches is possible above
7500 feet for the mountains, with 3-6 inches possible above 9000
feet in zone 110. Low exits the area Friday leaving clearing skies
for the weekend.

Min rhs for The Lowlands in the 40s Thursday decreasing to 25-35%
Friday and Saturday min rhs for the mountains 65-75% decreasing to
40-50% Friday and Saturday.

&&
Hefner

&&

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
El Paso 49 61 41 59 / 20 80 20 0
Sierra Blanca 45 64 40 58 / 0 30 30 0
Las Cruces 46 56 34 58 / 50 80 20 0
Alamogordo 46 59 35 57 / 30 80 30 0
Cloudcroft 36 41 28 37 / 30 80 30 0
Truth or Consequences 48 53 34 55 / 60 90 10 0
Silver City 42 47 35 49 / 80 80 20 0
Deming 46 56 33 57 / 60 80 20 0
Lordsburg 45 53 34 54 / 80 80 20 0
west El Paso Metro 50 61 41 59 / 30 80 20 0
Dell City 43 66 38 61 / 10 50 30 0
Fort Hancock 46 69 42 64 / 0 40 30 0
Loma Linda 47 58 38 53 / 10 50 30 0
Fabens 46 66 41 61 / 10 50 30 0
Santa Teresa 46 59 37 58 / 40 90 20 0
White Sands hq 49 58 38 58 / 40 90 20 0
Jornada range 45 56 32 57 / 50 80 10 0
Hatch 46 57 33 57 / 60 90 10 0
Columbus 47 57 36 57 / 60 80 20 0
Orogrande 46 59 37 57 / 30 80 30 0
Mayhill 41 52 31 48 / 20 80 30 0
Mescalero 39 49 30 45 / 30 80 30 0
Timberon 40 48 29 44 / 20 70 30 0
Winston 38 47 26 47 / 80 80 20 0
Hillsboro 44 53 31 54 / 70 80 20 0
spaceport 45 55 33 56 / 60 80 10 0
Lake Roberts 38 47 27 49 / 80 80 20 0
Hurley 43 50 34 51 / 80 80 20 0
cliff 40 54 35 54 / 90 80 20 0
Mule Creek 41 48 36 50 / 90 80 20 0
Faywood 44 52 32 53 / 70 80 20 0
Animas 46 56 34 57 / 80 80 20 0
Hachita 44 55 33 56 / 70 80 20 0
Antelope Wells 47 56 35 58 / 70 80 20 0
Cloverdale 46 50 36 52 / 80 80 20 0

&&

Epz watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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