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fxus63 keax 242054 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
354 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Calm conditions today as surface high pressure takes hold of the
region, bringing cooler and dryer air. Highs today have struggled
to reach the upper 70s, which has been quite the respite from the
warm and muggy conditions of the last several weeks. Winds have
turned more to the southeast, which indicates that the surface
ridge is starting to move east and return flow will commence. This
will get some warmer and moister air back into the area. This will
also create a focus for some showers and thunderstorms later
tonight along the west/SW periphery of the surface ridge. With mid
level troughing also in place there will be plenty of support of
some isolated to scattered showers in eastern Kansas later this
evening and tonight. There will also be a decaying complex of
storms forming in central Kansas, which will be diving S/southeast toward
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Far southern and
southwestern zones.

With off and on showers possible through the rest of the weekend,
given the presence of the low pressure aloft and moistening lower
levels, the next appreciable chance for thunderstorms will come
Monday afternoon through the overnight hours into Tuesday morning.
An encroaching mid level trough will drive eastward through the
northern and Central Plains, but more importantly a stiff cold
front will also push through the area. Expect a line of
thunderstorms to form somewhere in NE Kansas and northwest Missouri
Monday evening. Cape values approaching 2000-3000 j/kg will offer
ample instability for strong storms to form. With mid level speed
Max moving through the area at the time of storm formation,
expect enough shear to combine with the instability to bring a
chance for organized deep convection, likely bringing at least
some isolated severe weather, but more likely scattered storms
capable of producing wind damage and/or large hail. The frontal
boundary and storm motion look to be rather progressive, which
should moderate the flash flooding potential, but given the deep
convection and heavy rain there will at least be a possibility of
some isolated flash flooding Monday night into Tuesday morning.

With surface ridging moving in behind the cold front for next week
expect below normal temperatures with a generally dry pattern.
Some low end slight chance pops will be present, but no
appreciable opportunity for accumulating rain looks to be in line
for next week, at least until late week, when another frontal
boundary will sag in and bring some rain chances for Friday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1157 am CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Pesky strato-cu sticking around, which has caused observations to
jump between flight categories this morning. Noted some
improvement on satellite, which should continue through the
afternoon to more of a permanent VFR category. Have kept the pesky
MVFR strato-cu going for another couple hours in the meantime.
Good indications for low end MVFR or IFR stratus early Sunday
morning, with perhaps some reduced visible due to either fog/haze or
some very light drizzle.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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