Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 keax 222326 
afdeax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Discussion...
issued at 211 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 22 2019

Strong low-level flow wrapped around a strengthening surface low
near the Great Lakes will maintain local gusty surface winds through
the remainder of the afternoon hours, with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph
possible until sunset. A brief period of warm advection will
influence the region by early Wednesday as a broad surface ridge
along the Gulf Coast continues to push east with time. This will
bring warmer temperatures back into the area Wednesday, topping
off in the mid to upper 60s by the afternoon. This will be short-
lived, however, as the first of a series of cold fronts will
cross through the area early Thursday. Light rain is expected to
develop ahead of the front along a southwest to northeast axis,
coincident with the placement of a developing low-level jet and
weak mid-level ascent ahead of mid to upper-level trough axis.
Overall rainfall totals will be fairly low, with more favorable
moisture profiles pinned further south. Still, areas south of
Highway 50 may see up to a quarter inch beginning Thursday morning
through Thursday evening. Near-freezing temps are then expected
in the wake of the exiting cold front Thursday night/Friday
morning north of Highway 36 from around 2 am to sunrise.

The second cold from will arrive late Saturday/early Sunday
morning. Models continue to disagree in the mid to upper level
flow with how the mid-week trough axis either cuts off according
to the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian, or absorbs back into mean flow
according to the GFS. Should a cutoff low form and advect to the
south of the area, light to moderate rain showers would affect the
area in the Saturday to Sunday time frame. Otherwise, a dry
frontal passage is expected this weekend. Either way, the thermal
profile will be well-supportive of all rain and appreciable
rainfall totals will once again be limited to areas across
southern to central Missouri. The third cold front will then
arrive by the mid-week, maintaining the overall cooler than normal
trend and perhaps additional chances for light rain to develop
across the area.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 618 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 22 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds
will decrease to under 12 kts near to just after the start of the
prevailing period becoming light overnight. Ahead of the next
upper level wave, 850 mb winds will increase out of the southwest
after 06z with a 40-45 kt jet by 08z. The strong low-level jet
overtop of light surface winds will allow for wind shear concerns
from 08-13z. Surface winds will begin to increase out of the
southwest after 13z in response to the next trough and associated
cold front. The cold front is expected to pass through the
terminals between 21-00z with winds veering from southwesterly to
more northwesterly.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations