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fxus63 keax 141133 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
533 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019

issued at 320 am CST Thursday Nov 14 2019

Scattered to broken low-level stratus continues to fill in behind
the departing cold front, helping to moderate temperatures slightly
despite ongoing cold air advection with northwest surface flow. Residual stratus
deck will quickly move downstream through the morning as broad
surface ridging advances into the area from the west. Today will
mark the final day of afternoon highs in the 30s and 40s before a
multi-day stretch of warm air advection commences Friday, bringing more seasonal
temps to the area through next week.

Could see some patchy fog develop throughout the area early Friday
morning with surface temps cooling to saturation as low-level
moisture begins to build back into the area, coupled with light
winds. A brief late-week ridging pattern aloft will give way to a
deepening upper trough by the late weekend. May see sufficient
forcing for light precip to develop across northern Missouri
Sunday morning through the afternoon, though moisture profiles
continue to appear meager. Thus any precip in the form of light
rain and/or light snow will be brief with no accumulation or
impacts expected. As the upper trough deepens over the
southeastern Continental U.S. By late Monday, additional light precip is
possible Monday night across central and northeast Missouri as
embedded shortwave energy continues to advect overhead the eastern
County Warning Area.

Models are slowly coming into agreement with the next reasonable
chance for widespread precip to occur by the late work week. As of
now, thermal profiles support mostly rain with perhaps a brief
period of wintry mix across far northern Missouri. Warm temps will
persist through the early to mid week, though cool temps may return
by the late week in the wake of a progged cold front.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 528 am CST Thursday Nov 14 2019

Lingering low-level stratus will erode early in the forecast
period with VFR conditions persisting through Friday afternoon and
evening. Patchy fog is possible overnight, though some uncertainty
remains with spatial extent. Northwesterly surface winds will
transition to southerly to southwesterly by the end of the
forecast period.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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