Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 230838
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
338 am CDT Wed Oct 23 2019
issued at 338 am CDT Wednesday Oct 23 2019
Today will be the last day with above normal temperatures for the
forseeable future. The warmer temperatures will come courtesy of
surface high pressure shifting southeast of the area as a cold front
moves into the Central Plains. This will cause the pressure gradient
to tighten across the forecast area and allow warm air advection to occur. Expect
highs to rise into the low 60s to the north to the upper 60s south.
The aforementioned cold front will drop through the are late this
afternoon through tonight. The frontal passage will remain dry
however, tonight a low level jet will develop south of the area overriding the
aforementioned cold front now south of the County Warning Area. This will allow
moisture to stream northward into the southern County Warning Area on Thursday. This
light precipitation will continue across the southern County Warning Area into
Thursday night as a upper level trough moves into the region
providing the lift for showers along a 850mb boundary which will be
across the southern County Warning Area. With cloud cover and modest caa,
temperatures on Thursday will be well below normal with highs in the
mid to upper 40s. Friday, the upper level trough will move through
the area forcing the front well south of the County Warning Area and providing
strong northerly flow aloft. This will keep temperatures well below
normal with highs in the lower 50s.
As we move into the weekend, model solutions continue to be quite
different lending to a low confidence forecast. The GFS advertises a
drier and much cooler forecast than its ec counterpart. The GFS
depict quasi-zonal flow aloft on Saturday which becomes
southwesterly flow by Sunday out ahead of a upper level trough
digging into the northern plains to east central rockies. Monday,
the upper trough continues to dig into the plains and Midwest.
However, with very little moisture to work with conditions remain
dry. The broad upper level troughing over much of the central Continental U.S.
Will continue through at least midweek keeping temperatures well
below normal in the 40s with lows in the 20s. The ec on the other
hand shows a upper level trough ejecting out of The Four Corners
area late this week which moves into the I-44 corridor by
Saturday/Saturday night and bringing rain to most of the area
Saturday into Saturday night before it exits. Sunday and Monday
remain dry but then another upper level trough force a cold front
into the area on Tuesday and this front stalls over the area as the
upper level trough continues to dig South West of the forecast area.
This would bring additional chances for rain on Tuesday through
Wednesday. Some consensus between these models will need to occur
before forecast confidence increases.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1151 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 22 2019
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds
at the surface have slackened under 12 kts but an increasing 850
mb jet will increase low-level wind shear concerns between 08-13z.
A weak cold front will near the region after 20z with surface
winds veering from southwesterly to northwesterly by the end of