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fxus63 keax 220503 
afdeax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1203 am CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Discussion...
issued at 343 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 21 2019

Message of the day: isolated to scattered storms are expected this
afternoon and evening with storms becoming more widespread
overnight. Isolated strong winds and hail are possible
today/tonight, but heavy rain is the main concern. Up to 3 inches of
rain is expected for parts of the area with locally higher amounts
possible. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from 7 PM
tonight until 10 am tomorrow along and south of the MO river.

The storm activity took a brief late this morning, but with some
clearing in the clouds, the advancing cold front, and effective
boundary leftover from this mornings convection, we are seeing new
storm development in our western counties and out in central Kansas.
This activity should be isolated to scattered in nature for the
afternoon and early evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible anywhere across our area, with cape between 1500-2500
j/kg and deep layer shear generally around 35 kts with some
pockets up to 45 kts. Winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch are
the main concerns. As we head into the overnight hours, severe
weather potential will decrease, as the flash flooding threat
increases. Pwats are expected to exceed 2 inches which is well
above normal for this time of year. Additionally, the west to east
oriented frontal boundary will stall near the Kansas/MO/OK/AR border
as a southwest to northeast oriented low level jet strengthens. This will
enhance ongoing convection and increase coverage across the area.
The orientation of these features will promote training storms and
with fairly weak upper level flow, the system as a whole should
take its time moving south and east. As a result, excessive
rainfall is expected tonight, mainly along and south of the MO
river. Up to 3 inches of rain is expected with locally higher
amounts possible. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect
from 7 PM tonight until 10 am tomorrow for counties southwest of a
line from Atchison County Kansas to Howard County MO. For the most
part, storms are expected to diminish/exit the area in the late
morning as the low level jet weakens and high pressure starts moving in from
the north.

Storm chances will linger Thursday for those south of the MO river,
however most should be dry Thursday afternoon and evening with drier
air advecting in from the northeast. A somewhat messy upper level
pattern looks to take shape for the weekend, allowing for a few
chances for storms Friday and Saturday but that will be
counteracting the surface high pressure nosing into the area, so
right now it looks like most will by dry for the weekend.
Temperature- wise upper 70s to low 80s are forecast starting
tomorrow through the weekend. Not bad for the end of August.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1200 am CDT Thursday Aug 22 2019

Off and on rain expected overnight at the terminals. The bulk of
the heaviest rain will remain along or south of I-70, however that
doesn't mean kstj and kmci will be dry. There will still be a few
showers going through the northern most terminals overnight. Kixd
and kmkc will have the best chance for impact at the terminals.
Expect a very gradual improvement in conditions through the
morning, with mostly dry forecast in the afternoon and evening on
Thursday.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...Flash Flood Watch until 10 am CDT this morning for ksz025-057-
060-103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 10 am CDT this morning for moz028>031-
037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

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