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fxus63 keax 181745 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1145 am CST Mon Nov 18 2019

issued at 226 am CST Monday Nov 18 2019

Minimal forecast impacts expected today into Tuesday. Primary
weather threat today will be potential for patchy sprinkles or brief
light rain with the approach of a shortwave trough concomitant with
wwa/saturation occurring above 850 mb. This will lead to a mostly cloudy
day with temperatures slightly above climatological normals mainly
in the 50s. Readings will continue to warm on Tuesday into Wednesday
with increasing height rises and the return of southerly flow. The
weather will become more active by Wednesday as modified low-level
Gulf moisture returns to the area in advance of the next shortwave
trough and associated cold front. Highs in the lower to middle 60s
on Wednesday will potentially be some of the warmest observed
readings this November thus far. Widespread precipitation is
expected to develop by Wednesday afternoon/evening, eventually
clearing out by early Thursday morning. A few embedded thunderstorms
will also be possible with marginal instability present. Total
rainfall amounts will average 0.50-0.75". Cooler weather is expected
behind the system Thursday into Saturday before conditions begin to
moderate. Model spread is large by this weekend on the behavior of
the next system and its northward extent of precipitation, so
forecast confidence remains low by this weekend.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1141 am CST Monday Nov 18 2019

Passing light showers will not bring any aviation impacts aside
from a very brief light rain that may get runways wet. Otherwise a
series of winds shifts between northwesterly and westerly at 5 to
10 mph will be expected overnight into Tuesday morning.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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