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fxus63 keax 161108 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 am CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

issued at 307 am CDT Monday Sep 16 2019

Upper-level ridging encompasses the middle of the County and will
persist across the middle of the country through the middle of the
week. For highs the next few days, this looks like a good
persistence forecast so have modified highs for today and Tuesday to
be similar to Sunday, where low to mid 90 degree readings were
common. This upper ridge should help to suppress precipitation
chances. Forecast soundings across the area show a fair amount of
cin during the afternoon with little forcing. The only concern is an
area of convergence in our east where we transition from easterly
winds to more southerly. It's unlikely this will be enough to
overcome the upper ridge and the remaining cin, so have kept the
forecast dry for today.

By the middle to later portion of the week, the ridge axis will have
shifted to the east, with a trough deepening in the west. For
Wednesday into Thursday, with the ridge shifting east, it will allow
for weak front to creep near northwestern MO. While this front
may stay north of the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, it's
close enough that parts of northwestern MO have at least a chance
for some showers and storms. For Thursday into Friday, while the
front should still be well north of the area, there may be enough
moisture return and weaker suppression, with the ridge shifted
east, that a few afternoon showers and storms could form. It
really doesn't look like more widespread activity moves into the
area until Friday night into Saturday, or even later into the
weekend, when the upper trough starts to move through the middle
of the country. This will help push the front into/ through the
area, providing the low-level focus for storms. The threat of
severe weather will need to be watched with this system as there
is fairly strong dynamics involved. But for now, there is enough
variability in the timing of the surface features and the upper-
level support, that it leads to a fair amount of uncertainty.
Because of this, pops remain in the chance category. Once timing
becomes more certain, higher pops can be added in a more focused
period of time.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 608 am CDT Monday Sep 16 2019

There may be some patchy fog this morning but that will quickly
dissipate after sunrise giving way to VFR conditions through the
rest of the forecast. Winds will be from the south through the
forecast at 5 to 10 kts.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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