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fxus63 keax 111907 
afdeax

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
107 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Discussion...
issued at 106 PM CST Monday Nov 11 2019

Primary forecast focus is on bitter cold temperatures tonight into
Wednesday.

Key messages...

1. Temperatures across the region in the 20s, now, will quickly drop
into the teens overnight, bottoming out in the lower teens to single
digits across the area.

2. Winds overnight will cause wind chills in the negative digits in
northern Missouri and the single digits to zero across the rest of
Missouri and Kansas.

3. Temperatures will not climb back above freezing until Wednesday,
midday.

Discussion...

Through 1 PM, snow has ended for most of northwestern and northern
Missouri,including the kc Metro, with a few heavier bands still
moving south-southeast. Stout north winds will persist through the
afternoon, and skies will gradually improve through the evening.
Overall, initial snow amounts have been tough to measure given
blowing snow, but anywhere from a half inch to an inch has occurred,
with locally higher amounts likely approaching two inches in central
and northern Missouri.

Overnight, the surface ridge will build in behind the the exiting
front, bringing clear skies and slightly calmer winds. Given
snowfall and clear skies, guidance is likely under-doing temperatures
overnight a few degrees. Regardless, lows will dip into the lower
teens to single digits; wind chills will make it feel like negative
single digits in northern Missouri to zero nearly everywhere else by
Tuesday morning. With the surface ridge slowly sliding east through
Tuesday, temperatures will remain below freezing through Wednesday
morning.

With weak 500mb ridging over the Midwest, temperatures will rebound,
slightly, with highs back in the 40s for Wednesday afternoon. A
short wave trough traversing the northern plains into Thursday may
bring a chance of rain across far northern Missouri Thursday
morning, but the vast majority of the region will likely remain dry.

Temperatures by the end of the week will warm back up to more
seasonable values; highs in the upper 40s and 50s Friday and 50s
into the weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1123 am CST Monday Nov 11 2019

IFR conditions will persist for an hour or two at the start of the
period for kmci, kmkc and kixd; where snow continues to fall. Snow
has ended at kstj, but MVFR ceilings will persist for much of the
first six hours of the period. All sites will see improvement to
MVFR as snow ends and clouds gradually clear north to south
through the late afternoon and early evening. Expect VFR
conditions to settle in by this evening and persist through the
remainder of the period. Strong north winds will also gradually
lessen through the evening, but remain out of the north through
Tuesday morning before becoming more light and variable near the
end of the period.



&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ksz057-
060-104-105.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for moz008-
016-017-024-025-030>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

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