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fxus63 keax 172359 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
559 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

issued at 252 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

Rain has exited the area this afternoon however modest cold air advection and
cloud cover has kept temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Tonight a quick moving surface ridge will slide through the area
allowing for light winds and clearing skies. Temperatures will
fall into the low to mid 30s tonight. Tomorrow morning the surface
ridge will slide off to the east and a brief period of warm air advection will
get underway out ahead of a quick moving cold front expected to
push through the County Warning Area tomorrow night. Highs tomorrow will rise into
the 50s under mostly cloudy skies. Tuesday will feature height
rises across the region as upper level ridging moves into the
Western Plains. This will help temperatures warm into the mid 50s
to lower 60s under partly cloudy skies. Wednesday the upper level
ridge axis will move overhead with strong warm air advection at the surface. This
will push temperatures well above normal into the 60s. Rain will
overspread the area Wednesday night as a upper level shortwave
ejects out of The Four Corners region into the Central Plains.
This upper level shortwave will push a associated cold front
through the area as well. Moisture will plentiful with this system
with pwats in the 1.30"-1.40" range consequently most areas will
receive 0.75"-1.25" of rain. In addition, 100-200j/kg of Cape May
allow for an isolated thunderstorm as well. Precipitation will
move out of the area Thursday morning however, cloud cover and
strong cold air advection will drop highs into the mid 40s north to the mid 50s
south. Beyond Friday, model spread lends itself to a low
confidence forecast with the GFS depicting a shortwave moving
through the area early Friday producing mixed precipitation while
the ec is warmer and hold off precipitation chances until Friday
night. What does seem more certain is that that cooler
temperatures will affect the area Friday into the weekend with
highs in the 40s.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 559 PM CST sun Nov 17 2019

VFR conditions are expected across most of the area, with the
exception of parts of north-central MO where some patchy fog is
possible in the morning. Overnight, clouds will gradually exit
the area with winds backing to the south. Then tomorrow morning, a
cold front will approach the area, advecting in mid-level clouds
and eventually shifting winds back to the northwest by the
afternoon. Some patchy light rain is possible with the frontal
passage, but most areas should remain dry. Clouds should start to
clear out from west to east at the end of the taf period.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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