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fxus63 keax 211725 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1125 am CST Thu Nov 21 2019

issued at 258 am CST Thursday Nov 21 2019

Cold front is just beginning to quickly move through far eastern
Kansas and western Missouri, where a broken line of convection has
developed. With the strong wind dynamics just off the surface, there
is some potential for gusty winds to translate down to the surface
in the strongest thunderstorms, but the overall severe weather
potential is quite low. Expect the front and associated
precipitation to clear the forecast area by mid/late morning,
leaving dry and cooler conditions in its wake.

Attention then turns west to the next large upper low currently
centered over Las Vegas. This system will emerge into the Central
Plains on Friday. With northeasterly winds initially advecting drier
air into the region in advance of this system, precipitation chances
will be confined to points south of the forecast area - closer to
the surface front that is pushing through today. As the center of
the upper low approaches/moves directly over the area, enough
moistening and ascent is expected for precipitation to develop
across the area. With limited moisture, precipitation will be light,
generally a few hundredths of an inch. Additionally, the timing of
the system/precip will largely promote an all-rain event based on
the anticipated temperature profile. Still, enough uncertainty could
lend to an occasional mix of light snow at times, but with above
freezing surface temperatures and the light amounts of
precipitation, no impacts are expected in this area.

After a cool Friday with readings not exceeding the upper 30s to
lower 40s, a moderation in temperatures is expected from the weekend
into early next week - potentially reaching 60 by Monday. Quiet
weather is also expected during this period in advance for the next
amplifying upper low across the western Continental U.S.. by Tuesday, model
spread greatly increases with respect to the characteristics of the
next upper trough, but suggest that this may be the next window for
active weather across the region.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1125 am CST Thursday Nov 21 2019

Based on upstream observations and satellite imagery, have kept
low MVFR ceilings going into the overnight hours. After midnight,
drier low level air may move into the area and help erode the
clouds. Confidence is only medium that this will happen given the
persistent cold advection. So while models dry things out, have
kept some scattered mention of low clouds going. Gusty northerly
winds will diminish this afternoon but remain northerly around
5-10 kts through the end of the forecast.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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