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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
412 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Discussion...
issued at 412 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Focus of this mornings forecast remains on the near term as we
continue to watch a cold front, and associated rain, move through
the region today.

Satellite imagery shows a large trough beginning to eject from the
Rocky Mountains, pushing a cold front southeast across the plains
states. The precise location of the cold front this morning is a bit
hard to pin down as convection along the front has resulted in an
outflow boundary, which is somewhat masking the fronts location.
However, what isn't hard to see is the storms spreading into
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri early this morning ahead of
and along the front, which will finally sweep through eastern Kansas
and Missouri later today. Also, of note for this morning, is the
widespread rain heading northeast from central Oklahoma, which will
meet the outflow from the storms up north across our section of
Missouri.

This morning...showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing
across eastern Kansas and west central to northeast Missouri as the
front slowly settles across the region. Expect the intensity of the
rain to pick up a bit this morning, between 5 am and 9 am, as the
slug of moisture moving our way from Oklahoma will start over-
running the outflow form the storms moving in northwest Missouri.
Given the efficiency of the rain so far, we expect fairly high
rainfall accumulations this morning storms. And, if the outflow
boundary stalls across Missouri this morning, we could end up with a
fairly decent rainfall event from the late morning to early
afternoon hours, before the cold front catches up and sweeps all the
activity east later this afternoon/early this evening. Currently,
cams and operational models are struggling with this event, as none
of them seem to be handling the outflow from the storms very well,
expect maybe the rap. With that in mind, have leaned into the
potential for the outflow boundary to stall south of Kansas City
(around Highway 50) this morning as it meets the moisture rushing
northeast, which should result in widespread moderate to heavy rain
with widespread rainfall accumulation between 1 and 3 inches, with
locally higher amounts, as the rain simply persists through the day.
Have kept the Flash Flood Watch going across the region as a result,
though it may get trimmed in northwest Missouri early depending on
how fast the cold front moves in.

Otherwise, for today, we will want to watch for strong storms late
this morning into the afternoon hours. The cold front should finally
start shifting across northern Missouri in earnest later today as
the parent trough moves across the plains states, but there will
be some instability advecting northeast along the front as this
occurs. Confidence in model solution with regards to the
instability is a bit low, given the cloud cover and rain out
there, but any additional instability will only help to increase
rainfall rates today. And, with strong winds just off the surface
thanks to the jet running along the front, any decent rain core
could mix down some of the strong and gusty winds aloft. Thus,
anyone with outdoor plans today should be prepared for rain and
wind, and potentially lots of it.

Looking into the work week...Monday will see temperatures around, to
a little above, normal for late September as the flow flattens out
across the Central Plains states for the start the work week. Next
chance for widespread rain will arrive as quickly as Tuesday night,
as another trough starts to move across the northern plains.



&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Showers and thunderstorms expected to move into the area between
06-08z at the terminals, no severe expected but some gusty winds
25-30kts possible. Showers and storms will continue through at
least midday or early afternoon before ending. MVFR cigs expected
by morning as low levels moisten up. Front expected to move across
area tomorrow afternoon with improving cigs and winds switching
nwly 10-20kts.



&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ksz025-057-060-
102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for moz001>008-011>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

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