Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 171937
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
237 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019
issued at 237 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 17 2019
Storms currently dropping southeast across far northeastern
portions of the forecast area will continue to ride the cape
gradient out of the forecast area, and the subtle shortwave
trough associated with both the ongoing mesoscale convective system and the trailing
isolated showers across west central MO will depart to the east,
gradually ending precipitation chances by early this evening.
Behind the shortwave trough, clouds will begin to clear and allow
for a few hours of additional heating. Temperatures have already
risen into the upper 80s to mid 90s, and will surge another few
degrees with late afternoon heating, allowing heat indices to
reach the 107 to 112 degree range, especially since mixing has
been a bit limited up to this point and has allowed dewpoints to
remain high in the mid to upper 70s.
Heat will remain the primary concern through Saturday in the
broadly ridged flow aloft; temperatures are still expected to
reach the middle to upper 90s each day and dewpoints the lower to
middle 70s, resulting in heat indices greater than 105 degrees
during the afternoons and early evenings. Overnight lows will
linger near to slightly above 80 degrees, providing little relief
even after sunset.
A cold front is still expected to sag southward across the
forecast area Sunday, bringing precipitation chances Sunday and
possibly into Monday. Differences in timing among the longer-range
models has perhaps erroneously lowered pops beyond midday Sunday,
but will wait until timing is more certain to make any grid
changes. Cooler temperatures will follow behind for the end of
the forecast period.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1209 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 17 2019
Light showers will continue to move through kstj and near kmci
over the few hours, then VFR conditions are expected through the
rest of the taf period. Low level wind shear will be possible
during the early morning hours Thursday.
Kansas...excessive heat warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ksz025-057-
MO...excessive heat warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for moz001>008-