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000 
FXUS63 KDVN 150758
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
258 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

As of 2 AM, two distinct areas of convection were noted on GOES 
IR imagery, one across NE Iowa into SW Wisconsin and the other 
over east- central Iowa into NW Illinois. The trend over the past
few hours has been increasing storm coverage and intensity per 
cooling IR cloud tops. MRMS radar estimates 1-2.5 inches of rain 
has fallen in the past 12 hrs from NE Iowa County through central 
Johnson, and into central and southern Cedar Co. Another hard hit
area was central Clinton Co. into portions of Whiteside Co. 
(about 1-2"). Luckily we haven't had to deal with too much 
training of storms as they have shifted slightly to the south of 
this hard hit zone.

Late Tonight into Early This Morning

Latest RAP analysis indicated a favorable setup for numerous 
elevated showers and thunderstorms on the eastern periphery of 
impressive 925-850mb WV transport and a low-level jet. Efficient 
rain producing storms, with rates up to 1-2 inches per hour, can 
be expected due to deep warm cloud depths (2-2.5 km warmer than 0 
C) and PWATs up to 1.50-1.70 inches. Additionally, mid-level lapse
rates of 7-7.5 C/km and 1000-2000 MUCAPE will provide ample 
instability for robust updrafts. Storm motion vectors and mean 
850-300mb flow are showing storm speeds of 20-30 mph from W to E. 
Although, Corfidi vectors suggest some potential for backbuilding
meso-beta elements and threat for localized heavy rain totals of 
2-3+ inches.

Hi-res models have come into better agreement on the most likely 
location for the highest QPF to be over the central to east-
central sections of the CWA, probably staying to the south of the 
Freeport area.

The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect in the north and northeast
where recent heavy rainfall has led to saturated ground and 
has lowered 1 hr flash flood guidance to 1-1.5 inches. Since the 
heaviest rain axis has shifted a little to the south, the watch 
was expanded to include the counties along I-80 from the Quad 
Cities and points to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Today

Scattered showers and storms will linger in the east and 
southeast through the mid morning before completely diminishing 
and moving east of the forecast area. The rest of today will be 
very warm and humid with highs in the low 80s north to upper 80s 
south, and dewpoints into the upper 60s to low 70s. There could be
an isolated shower or storm that develops in the east this 
afternoon near peak heating but chances are very low.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Little change to the extended forecast with hot (for mid
September) and humid conditions likely through the week ahead. An
expansive upper ridge will be in control over the Central U.S. 
Forecast highs are in the 80s and dewpoints into the low 70s at 
times, which will yield peak heat indices in the upper 80s to
lower 90s making it feel more like mid summer than mid September.

A shortwave trough, tracking through the Northern Plains into 
southern Canada, will flatten the northern edge of the upper ridge 
mid to late week. A weak front associated with this system is our
next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Have low chances in 
the forecast from Wednesday Evening (in the west) through Friday, 
which is reasonable due to expected low areal coverage and limited
influence from the shortwave due to its northern track. 

Models are in better agreement on the front either washing out or
not making it completely through the central or southern forecast
area before retreating north again on Thursday and Friday. Main 
message is the unseasonably warm and humid conditions look to be 
locked in through at least next Saturday. Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Active next 6 hours for the TAF sites with showers and
thunderstorms affecting many of the sites. Early in the morning,
we may see some IFR and have started to trend that way with low
end MVFR. After the rain and storms tonight, expect VFR conditions
for the rest of the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Routed water moving through the river systems along with
additional heavy rain potential tonight is causing forecast rises,
many within bank rises, across the area.

The hardest hit local basins have been the Pecatonica and Rock 
River basins and we are getting a better handle on the flows from
rains that already fell, however there does remain a bit of 
uncertainty on how high the crests will be. The Pecatonica in 
Freeport is cresting currently and will fall less than a foot 
before starting to go up again as more water moves down from 
upstream. 

On the Rock, the forecast for the gage at Como has gone down this
morning and the rate of rise has slowed, giving less confidence 
that the river will hit the flood stage of 12.5 ft even though
it's only a half foot from that level currently. Because of this,
opted to hold onto the flood watch and will re-evaluate this
afternoon. Downstream at Joslin, it may be noticed that the
hydrograph is now showing the river to rise to 14.1 feet. Think
the rise is going to be very near 14 ft, but don't have enough
confidence that it will reach or exceed 14 ft to put out a new
flood warning for moderate flooding yet. Will continue to monitor.

There is a chance for heavy rains tonight, if heavier rains fall
than is expected, additional river flooding could occur.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Buchanan-
     Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jones.

IL...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Carroll-Jo 
     Daviess-Stephenson.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

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