Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kdtx 181155 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan
755 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019


Ridge of surface high pressure will extend back not the central
Great Lakes today. Outside of sparse high cloud spilling over
midlevel ridge axis, low cloud fraction is anticipated throughout
the period. Surface winds will become southeasterly today at less
than 10 knots. Some signal exists for patchy ground fog at daybreak

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none


Previous discussion...
issued at 405 am EDT Wed Sep 18 2019


No change to the inherited forecast as sluggish pattern evolution
continues through week's end. Upper ridge axis will transit the
central Great Lakes today, but will move little further east leaving
the thermal ridge immediately upstream or over the area into Sunday.
With boundary layer moisture finally scoured out, ample sunshine
today will support highs 8 to 10 degrees above normal, around 80
degrees, with additional moderation taking place Thursday through
Saturday. Established high pressure over the eastern Seaboard will
advect dewpoints into the mid 60s during this time, the instability
gradient finally folding into the area Sunday through Monday per 00z
consensus. Displacement of stronger forcing north and west and
modest deep layer momentum field appears prohibitive of
anything more than a marginal type severe threat early next week.


Influence of high pressure across the Great Lakes will bring
continued calm to light winds and thus light wave action. Southeast
to easterly flow will take hold late Wednesday morning, with a
slight uptick in wind felt through the later part of the day with
gusts of around 15-20 knots possible.


DTX watches/warnings/advisories...
Lake Huron...none.
Lake St Clair...none.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none.



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations