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fxus63 kdlh 221707 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
1207 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 224 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019

It should be a much quieter day today as a surface low moves off
to the east, but there still is an upper level low directly
overhead which may be able to spark a few light showers along the
northern portions of the forecast area this morning and an even
better chance across northwest WI this afternoon, but overall not
expecting much in terms of quantitative precipitation forecast as much drier air has moved in
overhead. A plume of moisture does try to move northward which may
give areas east and south of Ashland a couple of tenths of quantitative precipitation forecast
this afternoon. The upper level low will continue its March
eastward allowing high pressure to build and cooler air to seep in
though temperatures are still above normal for this time of year.
The sun should return in full force Monday which will also help
elevate temperatures.

Long term...(monday night through saturday)
issued at 224 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Several chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will occur
through the extended as the upper level flow transitions from
shortwave ridging Monday night to southwest flow Thursday night
into next weekend.

A shortwave upper ridge Monday will move east of the region Monday
night as a longwave upper trough moves over central Canada through
much of the central Continental U.S. Tuesday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will return Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A surface
low and cold front will move through the Northland Tuesday into
Tuesday night with cooler temperatures and cyclonic upper level flow
continuing into Wednesday. Chances for showers/storms will increase
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night with showers continuing into
Wednesday. The warmest day of the extended will be Tuesday with
highs in the upper sixties to mid seventies. Depending on the timing
of the front Tuesday afternoon/evening, some strong thunderstorms
may occur. Wednesday will be cooler, breezy, with a chance for more

The upper level pattern will transition from the upper trough to
southwest flow aloft by Friday. The period from Thursday through
Sunday will feature chances for rain as several shortwaves move
through the region. A stronger low pressure system is expected
Friday. Another stronger area of low pressure will start to affect
the Northland late in the weekend. Although we do have chances for
showers through the weekend, there are indications some dry periods
may occur, most likely Saturday/Saturday night.

High temperatures will be coolest Wednesday, ranging from the mid
fifties to lower sixties, but will warm a few degrees through late


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1207 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail through the taf periods, with
all sites likely improving to VFR by late this afternoon. A broad
area of MVFR stratus clouds exists across northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin, but through today ceilings are expected to
lift to VFR heights with a very low chance for stray shower
possible at inl and hyr. Otherwise VFR clouds tonight, clearing
out on Monday. West-northwest winds gradually weakening this
afternoon, around 10 knots, then around 5 knots or less tonight
into Monday morning.


issued at 1207 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

No hazardous marine conditions expected through the next 48 hours. West
winds around 10 to 15 knots will gradually weaken tonight as high
pressure builds in, with weak west to southwest winds around 5
knots expected on Monday into Tuesday.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 61 49 67 50 / 10 10 0 0
inl 62 46 67 50 / 20 10 0 0
brd 65 49 71 53 / 10 10 0 0
hyr 66 50 69 49 / 10 20 10 0
asx 66 50 69 50 / 10 20 10 0


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...


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