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fxus63 kdlh 201013 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
513 am CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Short term...(today through sunday)
issued at 513 am CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Much quieter today after morning fog, but still a chance for some
rain showers and potentially a stray lightning strike or two
mainly in the areas that were hit yesterday (south of a line from
Brainerd to ironwood). Remnants of an overnight mesoscale convective system may bring some
light rain as far north as Hibbing and perhaps a shower or two to
I-falls as well this morning though this is expected to largely
dissipate and slide to the south of the forecast area.

A weak front washes out near the Canadian border this evening, but
shouldn't amount to much in terms of pops though wouldn't be
surprised to see widely scattered shower activity.

Weak high pressure builds for Sunday which should keep the area
dry though zonal flow continues in the upper levels which will
bring a short wave in by Sunday evening which will enhance shower
activity especially in the western portions of the County Warning Area.

Long term...(sunday night through friday)
issued at 513 am CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

A shortwave trough moves through the region Sunday night which
could develop a few showers and storms mainly over our southern
zones. Afterwards, an upper ridge moves over the northern plains
leading to fairly dry weather and northwest flow aloft persisting
through Thursday. A few impulses may move through the flow and
bring a slight chance for rainfall, however, there is little
agreement with the deterministic models at this point. On Friday,
a cold front moves through the region bringing chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near to above average
over this period.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1231 am CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Storms that moved through a few of the terminals earlier this
evening put down a lot of rainfall that should increase the low
level moisture enough for some radiational fog over the next 12
hours. Khyr should be most strongly affected and have gone with
IFR/LIFR conditions until 13z, after which the fog should
dissipate. Kdlh, khib and kinl should also get some fog, but have
left at MVFR for now, as dewpoints are lower in these areas.
Saturday an area of rain should move across the khyr terminal, but
conditions should stay VFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions with no
precipitation expected through the end of the taf period.


issued at 513 am CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Quiet weather expected on the lake with only some rain chances on
Saturday. West to southwest winds prevail through Saturday night
becoming northwesterly Sunday. Winds generally remain less than 15
knots with waves of less than 2 feet.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 78 55 76 53 / 20 0 10 10
inl 78 52 75 51 / 10 10 10 0
brd 80 58 78 55 / 20 0 20 30
hyr 78 55 79 53 / 30 10 10 10
asx 80 57 77 54 / 20 0 10 10


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...


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