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fxus63 kdlh 150531 aaa 
afddlh

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
1231 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019

Update...
issued at 1231 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019

Please see the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Ridging initially over the forecast area will be pushed aside by an
approaching upper level short wave trof. Moisture is somewhat
limited initially with dewpoint depressions from 13 to 20 degrees.
Moisture will slowly increase the rest of the afternoon, but mean
humidity will range from 75 to 85 percent. Nonetheless, will still
see some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the trof.

The upper trof moves through the region tonight, accompanied by
plenty of Omega to generate some additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The storms should diminish late tonight as the best
forcing has moved east of the area. Did linger some showers over the
eastern third of the area as a mid level wave moves through.
Elsewhere, ridging arrives. Expect the wind to become light and
variable and some fog to form.

On Sunday, surface ridging covers the area. Warm air advection
during the day ahead of mid and upper level ridging arriving in the
afternoon. Max temps will reach into the 70s, with 60s over The
Arrowhead.

Upper level ridging covering the area Sunday night, while the
surface ridge moves east of the region. This will allow a
southwesterly flow from the surface up to 850 mb and good warm air
advection. 850mb temps rise through the night to the middle and
upper teens celsius. Min temps will be in the 50s, to near 60 along
the far eastern edge of the forecast area.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Warmer temperatures for the first half of the week, trending
cooler for Thursday and Friday. Best chance of precipitation is
Wednesday and Wednesday night, but a few sprinkles are possible
Monday night and Thursday night into Friday.

Upper-level ridge will slowly drift eastward Monday and Monday
night. Southerly winds near the surface will usher in warmer
temperatures for the start of the week. Highs on Monday will
reach the upper 60s to low 80s; 5 to 15 degrees above normal. A
subtle shortwave trough will move through Minnesota and Wisconsin
Monday night. Additional Theta-E advection on an 850 mb low-level
jet will introduce a slight chance of thunderstorms, especially
over the Minnesota arrowhead through early Tuesday morning. Think
the GFS precip signal is overdone, both in amounts and areal
coverage. Also trended pops lower for Tuesday. GFS is the only
model with widespread precip and the gefs spread and Standard
deviations are relatively high. Capped precip chances at 20%
Tuesday afternoon and 30% for Tuesday evening. Highs on Tuesday
may make a run at records for the date in a few locations. Highs
along the North Shore will be in the low to middle 70s with low
80s farther west. Northwest Wisconsin will see readings in the
upper 70s to low 80s; 8 to 18 degrees above normal. Tuesday night
will see the arrival of an upper-level trough and surface low.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase after midnight early
Wednesday morning and will remain in the picture through
Wednesday night. A lull in precipitation is likely mid-morning
before showers and storms percolate once again in the afternoon.
A cold front will slide through the Northland by late afternoon,
and with help from partly to mostly cloudy skies, will trend
temperatures cooler for Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be in the
low 70s along the North Shore and the upper 70s in portions of
northwest Wisconsin.

A few degrees cooler, but still above normal, with dry conditions
Thursday as high pressure moves overhead. Another upper-level
trough is expected to move through the area on Saturday, with
height falls and a warm front for Friday afternoon through Friday
night. Opted for a slight chance of showers late Thursday night
through Friday night. Temps trend a couple degrees cooler once
again, but stay on the warmer side of normal.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1231 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019

A few showers continued over parts of the Northland and they will
come to an end overnight as forcing wanes. We still expect ceilings
to lower to IFR for most areas overnight with fog developing.
Central into northern Minnesota should see the lowest
visibility/ceilings as that area will see clouds thin/diminish
first. It will take some time for the visibility/ceilings to improve
on Sunday with some areas not seeing VFR conditions until late
morning/early afternoon. Winds will diminish and become light for
most areas tonight and remain less than 10 knots on Sunday. VFR
conditions are then expected Sunday afternoon into the evening.

&&

Marine...
issued at 941 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

An upper level disturbance was moving through the region this
evening and a few more showers will be possible into the early
morning hours. Surface winds have become east/northeast for most
areas and that will continue into Monday. Wind speeds will be 5
to 15 knots for most areas.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 51 72 54 75 / 30 10 0 0
inl 48 74 55 80 / 30 0 0 0
brd 53 79 59 83 / 20 0 0 0
hyr 55 75 54 80 / 70 0 0 0
asx 52 73 53 80 / 60 10 0 0

&&

Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
Ls...none.
&&

$$

Update...melde

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