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fxus63 kdlh 140533 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
1133 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 324 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

First round of snow is coming to an end as a cold front slides
through northwest Wisconsin. Expect another round of light snow
across northern Minnesota this evening into late tonight as a
trough slides through. Flow aloft will switch to a northwesterly
direction and bring lake effect snow chances to the South Shore of
Western Lake Superior into early Thursday morning.

Initially, the Northland is under two shortwaves. The stronger
southern wave being located across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin
and the weaker northern wave over western portions of Ontario. The
southern wave will lift into the central Great Lakes tonight while
the northern wave digs into eastern Ontario. At the surface this
will slide a cold front through northwest Wisconsin this evening
while northern Minnesota sees a weak trough move in. Snow showers
will come to an end across much of northwest Wisconsin, however the
South Shore of Western Lake Superior will See Lake effect snow
shower chances due to flow aloft becoming northwesterly. Northern
Minnesota will see the best chances of snow showers and flurries per
the latest cam guidance and upstream observations. This activity
should taper off late tonight as the trough exits. Bumped up surface
temperatures a few degrees as clouds are expected to linger more
than previously forecast. Lows tonight range from the single digits
above zero to the teens.

Lake effect snow shower chances will come to an end early on
Thursday as flow becomes more westerly aloft. High pressure will
build into the Central Plains and nudge into the upper Mississippi
River valley. This will bring brief clearing early on Thursday,
however this will be short lived as potent trough digs from northern
Manitoba into western Ontario. This will slide a cold front into
northern Minnesota and bring increasing clouds for much of the
Northland during the afternoon. Snow showers will spread into
northern Minnesota. Leaned on the href and 3km NAM guidance, but
anticipate snowfall accumulations of a half inch or less. It will be
warmer than today as flow aloft becomes westerly which will advect
warm air into the region. Highs range from the mid 20s to the low

Snow showers end across northern Minnesota Thursday evening as the
front exits and high pressure builds in from central Canada. This
will bring decreasing cloud cover. Lowered temperatures across the
typical cold spots a few degrees across northern Minnesota as winds
will be light and skies relatively clear. This should result in
strong radiational cooling. Lows range from the single digits above
zero to the low 20s.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 324 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

A fairly quiet weather pattern ahead with a marked warm up on
Saturday. An upper level wave crosses on Saturday night and will
cause some light precip with a warm nose sneaking in at 850mb.
Surface temps overnight will likely be sub-freezing which may make
for some freezing rain or more likely freezing drizzle as moisture
depth is shallow. This entire system is fairly light in the quantitative precipitation forecast
department <0.25". A dry spell ensues until another small wave
crosses Monday night for a skosh of quantitative precipitation forecast with another period of
dry weather until Wednesday night or Thursday when a potentially
more robust wave arrives, but still doesn't look too strong.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

MVFR cigs cover the terminals at the start of the forecast with
some flurries. These features will continue through the overnight.
Some clearing is expected after sunrise with cigs improving to VFR,
but will be short lived as a cold front approaches from Canada by
mid day. MVFR cigs will return and affect all terminals until near
the end of the forecast. Gusty surface winds will occur along and
ahead of the front.


issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2019

A brisk southwest wind of 10 to 20 knots will occur Thursday
afternoon with some gale force gusts possible from Port Wing to
Bayfield. A gale watch is in effect Thursday afternoon and
evening. Waves will increase to 4 to 6 feet, with some higher
waves possible from Grand Portage to Duluth and Port Wing. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for Thursday afternoon and evening.
Winds and waves will fall back below these criteria late Thursday


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 12 28 15 27 / 20 10 10 0
inl 10 26 9 21 / 30 30 20 0
brd 11 30 19 31 / 20 10 0 0
hyr 11 27 18 32 / 20 0 0 0
asx 16 29 19 30 / 10 10 0 0


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
Ls...gale watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CST Thursday for



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