Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kddc 181033
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
533 am CDT Wed Sep 18 2019
..updated aviation discussion...
Short term...(tonight through Wednesday evening)
issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Zonal upper level flow has begun to become more meridional with a
long wave trough axis across the West Coast that will be the main
weather factor for the end of the work week and into the weekend.
The surface pressure gradient will slowly weaken overnight and
into the morning hours as a weak surface boundary propagates
across the County Warning Area. Gusty south winds will slowly diminish overnight
with 10-15 mph and more of southeasterly flow by morning.
Another mild start to the day for Wednesday in the mid 60s to low
70s west to east with highs swelling once again into the lower
90s. Moisture advection from the Gulf will start to increase with
more of an easterly component to the weakening wind that will be a
factor come later in the week in term of any severe weather
potential that currently has high uncertainty with it. Otherwise,
a very slight chance for isolated thunderstorm activity this
evening along the aforementioned trough axis at the surface but
confidence is low and looks to be along the Hwy 283 corridor from
Dodge City to Hays. No severe weather is expected given the capped
environment this afternoon, but a rogue storm or two are possible
along this line as indicated with the short term models.
Overall, the short term weather looks to be fairly quiet with hot
temperatures and mainly dry conditions as south winds weaken after
the gusty past few days. Changes in the overall pattern will
continue to change as the jet pushes further southward in support
of the aforementioned upper level disturbance with a multitude of
chances for precipitation for the end of the work week and into
the weekend. The highest severe potential looks to be for Friday
but even that is on the low end of confidence level at this point
a couple of days away. Expect mild temperatures to continue into
the long term with morning lows Thursday morning once again in the
60s but afternoon highs not as hot, even though still above
average for this time of year in mid September.
Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 1249 am CDT Wed Sep 18 2019
Thursday will be the start to the overall weather pattern change
for the County Warning Area with initial storm chances during the afternoon and
evening as the aforementioned long wave trough across the West
Coast pushes eastward and spins a shortwave through the area.
These will be of the garden variety type not seeing much of a
severe potential. Still above average temperatures in the upper
80s to near 90 with mild morning lows in the 60s.
Friday looks to be a better setup for severe potential as the next
round of storms push through the County Warning Area. With the increased
instability with a more southeasterly low level moist flow, there
will be a small potential for severe storm activity for the late
afternoon and evening hours. The issue with confidence being so
low will be with a capped environment and whether or not it gets
warm enough for the cap to break. Afternoon highs will be in the
mid to upper 80s, so the potential will be there but again,
confidence is low along with Storm Prediction Center not even having the region in at
least a marginal risk. This will be monitored in the coming model
runs to see how much this changes or if at all.
Otherwise, expect a cold front to push through the high plain
region over the weekend with another round for thunderstorms for
later Saturday and into Sunday morning as the long wave trough
pushes through The Rockies. Being more in the colder pool of air
behind the frontal boundary, expect severe risk to be low if any
at all with only general storms expected. This is when there will
be a higher potential for heavier rainfall with 1-2 inches
possible for eastern zone of central to south central Kansas.
Temperatures will drop to more seasonable for this time of year
with morning lows in the 50s and afternoon highs only into the low
to mid 80s. The upper level disturbance looks to lift east across
the plains with precipitation chances ending mid day on Sunday.
Another chance of thunderstorm activity for Monday evening with
another weak disturbance pushing down the building upper level
ridge across The Rockies, but with being northwest flow aloft,
confidence is low at this point a few days out. Otherwise, expect
a dryer trend into mid week with morning low temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s and afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
Long term models indicate this trend to continue with more
seasonable temperatures and a slightly wetter pattern to end the
month. So hopefully, the dog days of Summer are in the past with
90s hopefully gone after these next couple of days.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 532 am CDT Wed Sep 18 2019
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entirety of the taf
period for all locations. Clear skies and breezy south winds
around 15kts will be prevalent through mid morning. The pressure
gradient will continue to slowly weak as a surface boundary
pushes across the County Warning Area pushing winds more southeasterly around
10-12kts. A few high clouds throughout the day with high
uncertainty for any thunderstorm activity along the aforementioned
trough axis during the evening time frame through the end of the
period overnight. Hys and ddc would be the locations affected but
kept thunderstorms in the vicinity out of tafs due to not seeing much moisture to work
with for this activity to spin up. Short term models indicate this
as well but will update with amendments if needed later on.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 92 68 90 65 / 20 0 20 30
gck 91 66 91 63 / 0 10 30 30
eha 90 64 89 61 / 0 10 30 30
lbl 92 66 89 62 / 0 10 30 30
hys 92 68 90 66 / 20 10 20 20
p28 91 69 89 67 / 10 10 10 20