Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kddc 150826
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
226 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019
..updated long term...
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 126 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019
Upper level ridge continues to move eastward in the Desert
Southwest and this should lead to another quiet weather day across
the region for our Friday. Surface and 850 mb winds will continue
to pick up out of the southwest and with mainly sunny skies we
should see highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds should become
stronger through the late morning and early afternoon 15-30 mph as
a tightening pressure gradient occurs. This will lead to a higher
fire danger risk given the dry conditions around.
Tonight a shortwave coming out of Colorado will bring some passing
mid to high level clouds through the overnight. Winds should die
down but stay out of the south with lows falling back into the
Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 218 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019
The weekend should start quiet during the day on Saturday with
lighter winds and clearing skies as highs get back into the 60s.
The upper level ridge will give way to a longwave trough moving
out of the northern rockies on Saturday afternoon which will bring
a cold front across western Kansas for Saturday night. Winds will
briefly pick up behind the front out of the north for Sunday
morning before relaxing in the afternoon. The front should be a
dry passage as most of the long range models show little if any
Northwest flow and periodic cloud cover will be the case to start
off the week with warmer temperatures coming towards Tuesday and
Wednesday as an upper level ridge will be in the Central Plains.
Focus will turn to the late week as a slow moving storm system in
the Pacific will start to slowly track eastward. Wednesday night
or Thursday morning the first upper level disturbance to eject
from the Pacific storm system will move into the Central Plains
which could give US our first chance of measurable precipitation
in the forecast. Long range models don't have the main upper low
moving into the Central Plains until Saturday so there is the
chance we could see multiple days of rain chances through next
weekend. Better outlook of this system will come as we get closer
to the event.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1103 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019
VFR conditions through the taf time period. Winds will pick up out
of the southwest for all taf locations starting around 15z and
speeds will be 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts through 00z.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 67 35 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
gck 67 34 65 31 / 0 0 0 10
eha 70 38 69 33 / 0 0 0 10
lbl 67 35 66 32 / 0 0 0 10
hys 65 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
p28 64 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0