Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kddc 161020 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
520 am CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

..updated aviation discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 308 am CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

There will be a slight chance for light rain showers or even a
few isolated thunderstorms early this morning as some mid level
moisture (around 8000 to 12000 ft agl) and instability accompanies
a weak upper level disturbance as it crosses southwest Kansas
through noon. Lightning and gusty winds will be the main hazards
this morning. Once these clouds exit western Kansas around noon
then a sunny afternoon can be expected. Bufr soundings this
morning indicating a mixing depth this afternoon between 750mb and
700mb. Based on the 21z temperatures at the top of this mixed
layer and the mean winds in this layer it still appears that this
afternoon will be hot and breezy. Highs today will be around 100
degrees and gusty south winds will increase into the 15 to 20 mph
range. With afternoon dewpoint in the 60s the heat index readings
late today are not forecast to be much, if any, warmer than the
actual temperature.

Late day thunderstorms will once again be possible along a
surface boundary in eastern Colorado but given the location of
this boundary late day and light upper layer winds it appears that
these storms will weaken and dissipate before they move east into
extreme southwest Kansas.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 308 am CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Wednesday looks to be just as warm as Tuesday, if not a few
degrees warmer, based on the 24hour temperature change in the
750mb to 700mb level from 00z Wed to 00z thurs. Gusty south winds
are also expected to return given the 30 to 35 knot 900mb to 850mb
level winds at 12z Wednesday being mixed down to the surface
during late morning/early afternoon. Also given the mixing
potential am currently concerned that the latest guidance on
afternoon dew points may be a little high given the latest model
soundings and mixing potential. Taking this into account it looks
like heat index values will again stay below 105 for all areas
with the possible exception of a few locations east of a Medicine
Lodge to WaKeeney line.

Early Wednesday evening there will be a chance for scattered
thunderstorms along the Colorado surface boundary. The boundary by
Wednesday evening however will be located closer to the Colorado
border and is currently forecast to extend from extreme southeast
Colorado into northwest Kansas. Much like the past few nights
these storms will develop and move slowly east and then
weaken/dissipate after sunset. Based on the location of the
surface boundary late Wednesday it does appear that some of these
storms may be able to move into west central and portions of far
southwest Kansas Wednesday night. Severe weather is not
anticipated but given the high cloud bases there is the potential
that wind gusts of 45 to near 55 mph will be possible Wednesday
evening from a few of these storms.

Hot and dry conditions can be expected to continue from Thursday
through Saturday. Highs during this time frame are expected to
range from 100 to near 104 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the
70s. Heat index values late week east of Highway 183 still shows
the potential to climb to around 105 based on the latest dew point
forecast as gusty south southeast winds develop. Further west the
dew points will be lower and as a result so will the heat index
readings. These dry conditions however along with gusty south
winds will begin to improve the fire risk levels, especially west
of Highway 83 where the potential still exists for afternoon
relative humidity values to fall back into the 15 to 20 percent

A cold front is forecast to move across southwest Kansas late
Sunday. Timing is still somewhat unclear but it does appear that
by early Monday morning this cold front will be located by all the
models near or south of the Oklahoma border. This will not only
bring a break in the heat on Monday but also it appears this will
deliver our next decent chance for showers and thunderstorms.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 518 am CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Mid level moisture and instability ahead of an upper level
disturbance that will be crossing southwest Kansas this morning
will produce some isolated to widely scattered showers and
possibly even a few thunderstorms through 15z Tuesday. Once this
upper wave passes the skies will clear and then remain most clear
through early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10 knots this
morning will become south and increase to around 15 knots by noon
as 15 to 25 knots winds mix down to the surface. After sunset
these winds will decrease around 10 knots.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 101 74 101 76 / 20 10 0 10
gck 100 72 102 71 / 20 0 0 10
eha 101 72 100 71 / 10 0 10 10
lbl 102 73 100 72 / 20 0 0 10
hys 99 74 103 75 / 0 0 0 20
p28 101 75 103 78 / 0 0 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations