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fxus63 kddc 141711 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1211 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

..updated aviation section...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 140 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

A warm day is on tap today. This is particularly true across far SW
Kansas, where a downslope SW wind will prevail. Temperatures in this
region should easily warm into the 80s with the downslope wind and
dry ground. Stuck with a warmer solution of highs given the overall
cold bias in some of the models and actual observations have been trending
on the warm side of the solutions. There will be a limited fire weather
risk across SW Kansas today, however, winds are not forecast to be
nowhere strong enough for red flag warning criteria. For tonight, an
upper level low will move across the northern plains. This will usher
in the passage of a front across the state through the overnight hours
and into Tuesday. This front will be dry, however, north winds will increase
20 to 30 mph behind the front for several hours beginning tomorrow

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 140 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Some low clouds will touch the forecast area southeastern counties tomorrow morning.
Otherwise, much of Tuesday will be clear and dry. Highs in the 60s
are expected in the Post frontal environment with the already mentioned
breezy northerly winds. High pressure will prevail over the greater
region on Wednesday with dry conditions and moderating temperatures.
The warm sector will spread well northward on Thursday. A return to
very warm temperatures looks likely as well along with an elevated
fire weather concern across far SW Kansas. This is in association the
warmer temps and breezy to windy conditions expected ahead of the next
front. This second front will move across the forecast area late Friday. This
front will also be dry. The long range models show yet another system
moving in from the northwest next weekend. We might end up dry slotted
with this system, so overall precipitation prospects generally look
to remain north to east to southeast of the forecast area.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Mostly clear sky for the rest of today and tonight. A weak 700 mb
trough moving through the NE/co/KS border areas will be generating
some mid to high level stratiform cloud this afternoon, while
farther south the sky should remain clear as warm front lifts into
the extreme southwest this afternoon.

Cold front is forecast to drop south across the area overnight (hrrr
indicating between 9 and 11 UTC tuesday). Isallobaric rises along
and behind the front should lead to sustained north wind speeds
around 25 knots with higher gusts as the sunrises and boundary
layer mixing coincides with the frontal passage. Other than that
the conditions should still be favorable for aviation with an
overall absence of impacts from low clouds.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 82 46 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
gck 84 44 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
eha 86 44 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 86 45 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
hys 78 46 64 32 / 10 10 0 0
p28 79 51 68 36 / 0 10 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


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