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fxus63 kddc 142056 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
256 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

..updated short term and long term sections...

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 255 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

A ridge of high pressure at the surface extended from the western
Texas Panhandle through northern Kansas mid-afternoon, which
resulted in a nice drop off in winds today. Light winds will
continue through the night until south winds resume mid to late
morning Friday. With light winds and a clear sky in place and
afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s, we will likely see our
typical 25 or so degree nocturnal fall of temperatures down into the
upper 20s to around 30 by daybreak Friday.

Friday's weather will be warmer, with highs well into the lower to
mid 60s, as upper level ridging continues to build across The
Rockies and adjacent High Plains. It will be breezy, with a south to
southwest wind 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 255 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Not much has changed in the long term picture this weekend going
into next week. The late Saturday/early Sunday upper level trough is
now suggested by the latest global models to pass more north of
southwest Kansas, so there is even less chance of any measurable
precipitation. The latest European model (ecmwf) model now has no quantitative precipitation forecast with the 700mb
front passage late Saturday night/early Sunday. The coolest day
coming up, Sunday, will still be above climatology for highs (upper
50s to around 60 vs. The climatology of around 53 degrees or so).

A rather significant pattern change will be occurring mid to late
week as a major trough is expected to develop along the West Coast.
As this trough deepens along the West Coast/California, it will
likely kick out a stalled out upper low which will have been
spinning off the coast of baja. If this initial upper low kicks
northeast mid-week across the southern rockies, it will aid in
drawing up low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the
main polar system will likely be positioned out over the Desert
Southwest somewhere day 6-7, but what happens after that is
extremely uncertain, the details of which will certainly dictate how
much (if any) precipitation we see across southwest Kansas toward
the end of next week or the following weekend.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Light winds will continue today through tonight as a surface high
pressure ridge moves southeast across the Central Plains. Winds
will eventually turn around to the south-southwest Friday morning
and begin increasing to above 12 knots by mid to late morning. VFR
flight category will continue in this very dry pattern.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 29 66 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
gck 29 66 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
eha 32 69 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 28 66 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
hys 28 64 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
p28 28 63 32 61 / 0 0 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...

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