Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kddc 190740
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
140 am CST Tue Nov 19 2019
..updated long term...
Short term...(tuesday and wednesday)
issued at 1200 am CST Tue Nov 19 2019
Quiet dry northwest flow continued aloft as of midnight, with only patchy
cirrus passing by. Despite a clear sky and light and variable
winds, the atmosphere remains mild, keeping temperatures in the
30s through sunrise, above freezing and above normal.
Ridge axis over Arizona at midnight will phase eastward, arriving
in SW Kansas around 6 PM. Nearly full sunshine will result today, with
nothing more than scattered cirrus. Unseasonably warm temperatures
are expected this afternoon. Temperature trends continue to
follow or exceed the warmest guidance in this dry regime, and
today will be no different. Forecasting lower to mid 70s for all
zones, which is 15-20 degrees above normal for mid November. Lee
troughing along the I-25 corridor in Colorado this afternoon will
strengthen the pressure gradient and S/southeast winds, with the
strongest winds expected during the early afternoon. Winds will
average 15-25 mph with gusts to near 35 mph. Any minimal swly
component will be confined to the western zones, with a southeast
component and moisture advection beginning elsewhere.
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will be exceedingly mild for
November, courtesy of continued moisture advection, increasing
clouds, and elevated southeast winds. With dewpoints climbing into the
lower 40s, temperatures will hold in the 40s at many locales.
Weakening shortwave trough near Tucson, Arizona at 6 am Wednesday
will track rapidly into SW Kansas around 6 PM Wednesday. While
weakening, this system will bring remnant Pacific moisture with
it, and help draw Gulf of Mexico moisture northward (lower 50s
dewpoints southeast zones by afternoon). Scattered rain showers are
expected Wednesday afternoon, with coverage favoring areas east of
US 283. This shortwave will be progressive, keeping quantitative precipitation forecast of
consequence restricted to the southeast zones, with much lighter amounts
with northwest extent. 00z NAM quantitative precipitation forecast fields appear too wet and too far
west. Kept a thunder mention in the grids as meager cape interacts
with the shortwave and strong wind fields aloft. Temperatures will
remain mild Wednesday, in the 60s, before a strong cold front
arrives with an abrupt north wind shift Wednesday night.
Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 140 am CST Tue Nov 19 2019
Thursday will deliver a cold November reality check, as north
winds of 15-25 mph supply cold air advection originating from a
Canadian surface high building into the Dakotas. The north winds
do not appear overly strong, and really the air won't be overly
cold for the time of year, just a big shock after basking in the
60s and 70s...back to the 30s and 40s. Daytime Thursday hours will
be dry, with light rain entering the far western zones toward
00z European model (ecmwf) remains consistent from its previous runs, keeping
winter weather impacts limited in SW Kansas Thursday night and early
Friday. Closed 555 dm low near Las Vegas at 6 PM Thursday moves
quickly to near Denver early Friday, with the upper low center in
the vicinity of WaKeeney midday Friday. This storm track is too
progressive and too far north to produce heavy precipitation in SW
Kansas. That said, confidence is high that we will see light rain
changing to light snow Thursday evening, coinciding with the best
6-hour window of moisture and lift ahead of the upper cyclone near
Denver. Raised some of the pops Thursday evening into the likely
category, with a phase change of rain to snow expected west to
east. Again, quantitative precipitation forecast will be limited, and this will not be a major
winter storm for SW Kansas. Preliminary snow total grids have less
than one inch for many zones, with the highest probability of 1 to
2 inch amounts in the far SW zones (morton County and vicinity).
Nbm hangs onto pops through midday Friday, but feel these are
overdone, as European model (ecmwf) quickly dryslots SW Kansas by midday Friday.
Despite decreasing clouds Friday afternoon, it will be cold, with
afternoon temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
Dry and quiet with a warming trend over the weekend, as the
familiar uneventful northwest flow aloft resumes.
The extended outlook into Thanksgiving travel time looks
interesting. European model (ecmwf) is beginning to show run to run consistency
with much colder air and accumulating snow approximately Tuesday
Nov 26th. This system may pose travel concerns across the plains
prior to Thanksgiving, and will be monitored closely.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1035 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019
VFR will continue through this taf cycle. Scattered cirrus
currently will clear by morning, with light and variable winds
trending light sely. VFR/sky clear is expected daylight Tuesday beneath
pronounced ridging aloft. During the 15-18z Tue time range, S/southeast
winds will increase at all airports, averaging near 20 kts, with
gusts near 30 kts. Southeast winds will diminish around sunset, but
remain elevated, at 10-14 kts into Tuesday night.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 73 47 70 32 / 0 0 50 20
gck 72 42 69 30 / 0 0 40 20
eha 74 47 69 30 / 0 0 30 0
lbl 74 47 71 30 / 0 0 40 10
hys 70 45 67 32 / 0 0 40 50
p28 70 49 69 39 / 0 0 60 40