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fxus61 kctp 131159 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
659 am EST Wed Nov 13 2019

a ridge of surface high pressure will slide east from the
Ohio Valley today. This weather feature will bring partly
to mostly sunny, dry and cold weather with a light west to
northwest breeze and flurries flying over the northwest
mountains and Laurel Highlands this morning.

As the high drifts off the mid Atlantic coast tonight it will
create a south to southwest flow of air that will help to warm
temperatures by 7 to 10 degrees for Thursday and Friday


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
1032 mb sfc high centered over the lower Ohio Valley will
maintain the northwest flow of unseasonably cold air into the region

Temps to start the day will range from around 10 degrees in the
perennial cold places of northern PA, to near 20f in the larger
Metro areas in the southeast.

Skies today will vary from mostly cloudy to cloudy with
flurries and a few narrow streamers of snow showers across the
northwest mtns and Laurel Highlands, to mostly sunny across the ridge
and valley region of the state.

Subsidence inversion will slowly lower from 4-5 kft above ground level this
morning to only around 3 kft above ground level by late today. However, the
prime temps for dendritic growth will occupy much of the
stratocu layer. Additional snow accums of a coating to 2 inches
are likely across mainly the northwest half of Warren County in the
northwest, with just a light dusting likely near the rt 219

Flow will back to the southwest by midday Wednesday, ending any
remaining lake effect and causing stratocu to diminish. However,
expect a veil of cirrus to stream southeast from the upper Midwest and
glakes region and overspread the area during the afternoon, as
waa aloft spreads in ahead of shortwave over the plains.

High temps today will only be in the mid to upper 20s across
much of the higher terrain across northern and western PA,to the
low and middle 30s elsewhere.


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/...
short wave will pass north of the area tonight acting to
increase the warm air advection. However, with upper support
well to the north, no precipitation is expected.

This upper trough is followed by a weak cold front for late
Thursday and early Friday which will have little effect on the
weather as the weakening front has little cold air behind.
Overall result will result in the area being under a west-northwest flow
aloft and surface high pressure nosing in from the Ohio Valley.
So, expect dry conditions and near normal temperatures at the
end of the week.

The south to southwest flow of air will help warm temperatures
into the mid and upper 30s across the north, and low to mid 40s
in the valleys of southern PA.


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/...
models still struggle in the resolution (or exact path near or
up to one hundred nm offshore) of a potential East Coast low
developing over the upcoming weekend. Latest runs of the
operational GFS and Euro build a blocking high over New England
and hold the low at Bay well south and east of the region. Will
continue the generally dry and seasonal forecast for the
extended making only minor temperature and pop adjust according
to the latest guidance and surrounding offices.


Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
a ridge of surface high pressure will slide east from the
Ohio Valley today.

Clear over the se, but cloud bands/streamers persist over the
northwest half of County Warning Area in cold northwest wind flow, and these will bring
temporary reductions and snow flurries to bfd/jst through late
morning. Then the low clouds will erode leaving VFR conditions
for all of central PA. West winds at 5-10 mph will shift to the
south late and become light.

VFR conditions then continue in quiet weather tonight through
Thursday night.



Fri...perhaps a snow shower and brief restrictions at kbfd, but
otherwise mostly VFR.



Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...



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