Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kctp 151138 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
738 am EDT sun Sep 15 2019

high pressure will build into the region and usher in several
days of dry weather with temperatures at or above normal.


Near term /through tonight/...
after the fog Burns away, it should be a much brighter, milder
day. We could even top normal maxes by 5 degs in many places.

A weak area of low pressure will approach from the west tonight.
A few very light showers will occur over the north late in the
day. More, but scattered at worst, showers will occur overnight
generally north of I-80. Mins in the u50s to m60s will be much
above normal.


Short term /Monday/...
weak low pressure will cross the area on Monday, generating many
showers. Coverage will be scattered and these may not get south
of the Turnpike. Maxes will range from 70 to 87 from north to S.


Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
a weakening cold front will cross the area on Monday, bringing
little more than low chance pops. It will be a warm day ahead
of the front, with high temperatures approaching 10 degrees
above normal across southern PA.

After that, a sprawling area of high pressure will nose down
from New England and dominate our weather for the remainder of
the week. This should keep central PA generally dry through the
week. After a brief cool down behind the departing cold front,
temperatures should slowly begin to moderate later in the week.


Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
the fog is expected to burn off by 14z with mostly clear through
the day. Clouds from an upstream wave will start to thicken over
the nrn tier late today and a couple of very light showers could
dip into bfd before sunset or during the evening. But, it should
remain VFR for much of the night. The cloud cover will probably
be a benefit to the nrn mtns, keeping fog unlikely tonight.

A weak low pressure area and nebulous cold front with meager
moisture will cross the area on Monday. It will make iso/sct
shra, but mostly over the nrn terminals. Low-end VFR (3-5kft)
clouds will cover a good portion of the area on Mon, but IFR
is unlikely.

Outlook... valley fog north. Otherwise VFR.


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations