Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 231955
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
355 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019
a cold front will move through the forecast area later today and
this evening. Behind this front look for cooler and drier
conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front will
move through on Thursday.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
radar shows mainly disorganized light showers streaking east-northeastward
across the area. Rap meso-anal shows stable air in place over
most of the region, with a small sliver of CAPES around 500j
along the cold front that extends from western New York down into eastern Ohio.
Front still looks good to pass through the County Warning Area between about
5-10pm. Used a blend of the very wet hrrr and sref and the more
tempered GFS MOS and nbm to paint mainly likely pops but with an
overall fairy low quantitative precipitation forecast event.
Forecast instability as the front approaches is not impressive
so organized storms are not expected. This is supported by the
cams which suggest the most organized showers/isolated thunder
move across the region between about 5-10pm with the cold front.
Showers will be mainly over by midnight, with perhaps some
lighter activity clinging on over the northwest. Lower dewpoints will
be filtering back into most areas by midnight, and down over
southeastern zones by morning. So while it may still be a bit sticky at
bedtime, it will be much more comfortable by sun-up.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
Tuesday will be cooler and drier with a few light showers northwest.
Look for the development of a deck of stratocu/self destruct
sunshine with daytime heating, that will tend to mix out in the
afternoon. Highs will end up about 5-15 deg cooler than today.
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
with high pressure building Tuesday night look for better
conditions for radiational cooler. The nice weather continues on
Wednesday with sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s
everywhere. Models show another reinforcing shortwave frontal
system will move across the area on Thursday. Will cover this
with chance pops but quantitative precipitation forecast not impressive at all. This will help
return temperatures closer to average for Thursday and Friday.
A stronger weather system will bring a better chance for showers
on Saturday possibly lasting into Sunday for perhaps an
unsettled weekend of weather ahead.
Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
scattered showers and increasing humidity are bringing MVFR
ceilings to my western and northern higher elevation terminals.
This will likely continue into the evening. VFR and only brief
MVFR can be expected over central and eastern terminals.
Frontal showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are likely as the
front moves across the airspace later today and this evening.
Low cigs may persist over the western taf sites into Tuesday
Tuesday will see most terminals remain VFR or improve to VFR
early. Bfd/jst could be the usual exceptions taking until
afternoon to improve.
Wed...am fog northern valleys bcmg VFR.
Thu...cold front with local restrictions in showers and
Fri...am valley fog possible.
Sat...cold front with local restrictions in showers and
autumn officially began at 3:50 a.M. EDT.
near term...la corte