Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 151730
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1230 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2019
a ridge of high pressure extending from the Ohio River valley
through southern Pennsylvania will provide clear to partly
cloudy skies for most of the commonwealth this morning.
A moisture-starved cold front will drop southeast across the
region late today and tonight accompanied by just a few
flurries across the northern mountains of the state.
Another area of high pressure will be located north of Lake
Ontario Saturday, the clock-wise flow around this high will
feed cold air into Pennsylvania on a brisk northeast wind.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
weak low level troughing around the gr lakes is helping support
a small sliver of low clouds. Satellites shows these melting
away very slowly. There may be a light snow shower or flurry
under these clouds, but most locations will remain dry.
A weak cold front will slide southeast through the County Warning Area with little
fanfare other than some light flurries later today. Northwest PA will
have the best chance for a flurry.
Afternoon Max temps today will range from 35-40 across the
northern mountains to around 50 over the far southeast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
surface cold front pushes south of the state tonight, followed be
yet another cold area of high pressure. Sfc wind that could gust
between 15-20 mph at times, will veer through the north then
become northeasterly on Saturday.
Aside from a few flurries along, and in the wake of the front,
conditions will continue to be dry with abundant sunshine and
clear skies over the region to the south of the I-80 corridor.
Max temps Saturday will be around 13f below normal some areas
of shallow bkn stratocu possible through the mid morning hours
- mainly across the northern mtns of PA.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
a cold start to the period with the largest departures from
normal (-5 to -15 degrees) expected Saturday night and Sunday.
There is downside risk to mint am Sunday with mainly clear skies
and very low dewpoints in the single digits. Would not be
surprised to see single digits lows in the usually colder spots
across the northern tier. Looking ahead to next week, expect
temperatures to gradually trend milder but with a below-normal
There remains variability in the model guidance (low confidence
in the forecast) concerning the precipitation pattern next
week. The first opportunity should come Monday night into
Tuesday as upstream trough energy takes on negative tilt as it
crosses the Appalachians. Model consensus supports an increase
in pops via nbm with potential for rain/mix/snow given marginal
thermal profiles. Reiterating low confidence here and will need
to monitor pattern evolution given potential for some travel
impact am Tuesday.
There will likely be 2 more northern stream waves to contend
with around Wednesday and Friday. The midweek system has the
look of a fast-moving clipper followed by a brief period of lake
effect/upslope snow. The late week system is more of a
deepening frontal wave tracking through the Great Lakes and
dragging a strong cold front through the area Friday. Cold,
gusty northwest flow behind the late week system would
invigorate the lake effect machine. Overall predictability
trends lower with time so expect changes in the forecast going
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
latest satellite shows low to mid clouds streaming into the
northwest with MVFR ceilings at bfd. Elsewhere generally VFR
conditions will continue over the remainder of the region.
The wind will generally be light and variable.
Fri...perhaps a snow shower and brief restrictions at kbfd, but
otherwise mostly VFR.
Sat-Tue...no sig wx.