Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 181959
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
359 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
a dry spell will continue this week with comfortable afternoons
and cool nights with light winds and low humidity. Temperatures
will trend above average for the last official days of Summer
this weekend. A period of rain is most likely early next week.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
morning fog dissipated early leaving full sunshine and pleasant
conditions for the rest of the day. High pressure ridge over
southeast Quebec keeps fair weather in place for tonight, with
the typical autumn valley fog. Onshore easterly component
around the anticyclonic flow may give southeast areas more
widespread low clouds late tonight and Thursday morning.
Continued to trend afternoon dewpoints/rhs lower than blended
guidance based on pattern recognition and forecast soundings.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
sunny, pleasant, and rain-free weather continues through the
end of the week with low humidity. The only sensible wx change
will be a warming trend starting on Friday with forecast Max
temp departures climbing +5-10 degrees above average. Low temps
should bottom out in the 40s Thursday night and also trend
upward into the weekend.
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
a building upper level ridge with above normal heights will
bring a resurgence of summertime heat across the area through
the upcoming weekend. Max temperature departures of +10-15
degrees are expected Sat-Mon with peak readings in the mid to
upper 80s in the southeast. Max temperatures would have to reach or
rise above 90f to challenge daily records in most locations.
Rain likely holds off until Monday which is the first day of
fall. However, there are no signs of frost on the horizon even
though temps will trend back toward normal. Just low chances for
light showers Tue/Wed in spots but overall a pretty dry
Aviation /20z Wednesday through Monday/...
VFR conds prevail through late tonight with light east-
northeasterly breeze of 5 knots or less. Areas of valley fog and
perhaps more widespread low clouds over the lower susq River
Valley expected tonight, as easterly component provides onshore
flow there. Otherwise, VFR conds prevail next few days with brief
reductions possible during the late- night/morning hours in
patchy fog or low clouds.
Wed-sun...am valley fog/low clouds possible, otherwise
autumn officially arrives at 3:50 a.M. EDT, on Monday, sept. 23.