Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 151040
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
540 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
a ridge of high pressure extending from the Ohio River valley
through southern Pennsylvania will provide clear to partly
cloudy skies for most of the commonwealth this morning.
A moisture-starved cold front will drop southeast across the
region late today and tonight accompanied by just a few
flurries across the northern mountains of the state.
Another area of high pressure will be located north of Lake
Ontario Saturday, the clock-wise flow around this high will
feed cold air into Pennsylvania on a brisk northeast wind.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
split upper trof pattern over the eastern Continental U.S. With high clouds
streaming over the southern tier counties of PA early this
morning, while an area of weak llvl warm advection was helping
to form/maintain bkn-ovc stratocu along and about 50nm inland
from the Lake Erie shoreline. Skies were essentially clear
across the central 2/3rds of the state.
The cold front will slide southeast through the County Warning Area with little fanfare
other than some light flurries later today (nw pa).
Temps will start the day in the 20s to near 30f, but could dip
into the upper teens in a few spots.
Afternoon Max temps today will range from 35-40f across the
northern mtns, to around 50f in our far southeast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
surface cold front pushes south of the state tonight, followed be
yet another cold area of high pressure. Sfc wind that could gust
between 15-20 mph at times, will veer through the north then
become northeasterly on Saturday.
Aside from a few flurries along, and in the wake of the front,
conditions will continue to be dry with abundant sunshine and
clear skies over the region to the south of the I-80 corridor.
Max temps Saturday will be around 13f below normal some areas
of shallow bkn stratocu possible through the mid morning hours
- mainly across the northern mtns of PA.
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
the trend of below average temperatures and relatively calm
weather will continue through the weekend. Max/min temperature
departures 10 to 20 degrees below normal are forecast on
Saturday, followed by a gradual warming trend toward mid to late
November climate normals through the middle of next week.
A strong low pressure system is currently expected to remain
off the Atlantic coast Sunday night into Monday. The latest
model data suggests that upstream energy within the amplifying
eastern trough pattern could invigorate an area of precipitation
over the area on Monday. Marginal thermal profiles may be cold
enough to support rain/wet snow mix at higher elevations.
Another low is likely to develop off the East Coast by the
middle of next week and is not expected to impact cpa at this
time. However, the sufficiently cold cyclonic flow pattern
should trigger periods of lake effect/upslope snow showers next
Aviation /10z Friday through Tuesday/...
latest satellite shows low to mid clouds streaming into the
northwest. Some MVFR ceilings could creep into the far northwest for a
time Friday, but generally VFR conditions will continue over the
remainder of the region.
The wind will favor light and variable.
Fri...perhaps a snow shower and brief restrictions at kbfd, but
otherwise mostly VFR.
Sat-Tue...no sig wx.