Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 121930
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
issued by National Weather Service Binghamton New York
230 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019
A northwest flow of very cold air will continue across the
region into tomorrow resulting in snow showers over the northern
and western mountains, and much below normal temperatures. A
warming trend on Wednesday and Thursday will return temperatures
to near normal with mostly dry conditions.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
Northwest flow of very cold air continues and is bringing snow showers
to the higher terrain of central PA. Flow will gradually become
more westerly overnight lifting the the leftover lake effect
and confining it to the extreme northwest zones by Wednesday morning.
Flow continues to back Wednesday to the southwest ending the
lake effect in the area and beginning the process of modifying
the air mass. So expect a near 10 degree Max temperature
recovery during the afternoon, under dry conditions and
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday/...
Short wave will pass north of the area Wednesday night
increasing the warm air advection but with upper support well
north, not expected to drop any precipitation. System is trailed
by a weak cold front late Thursday and early Friday which will
have little effect on the weather as the weakening front has
little cold air behind. Overall result will result in the area
being under a west-northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure nosing in
from the Ohio Valley. So, expect dry conditions and near normal
temperatures at the end of the week.
Long term /Friday night through Monday/...
Little change to the extended forecast at this update. Models
are still struggling in the resolution of a potential East
Coast low developing over the weekend. Latest runs of the
operational GFS and Euro build a blocking high over New England
and hold the low at Bay well south and east of the region. Will
continue the generally dry and seasonal forecast for the
extended making only minor temperature and pop adjust according
to the latest guidance and surrounding offices.
Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
northwest flow will bring lake effect snow showers to bfd and
jst through tonight at least, with occasional IFR conditions.
Elsewhere, general VFR conditions are expected with just some
gusty northwest winds, although winds will lighten overnight.
Some improvement is likely after 12z at jst and bfd, although
scattered snow showers will most likely continue.
Fri...perhaps a snow shower and brief restrictions at kbfd, but
otherwise mostly VFR.