Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 232326
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
726 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019
high pressure over the southeast Continental U.S. Will push northeast into
the mid Atlantic region today and Thursday. A weak cold front
will sag south across the area late Thursday and Friday. Low
pressure will track west of Pennsylvania late in the weekend
with the trailing cold front likely coming through Pennsylvania
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
GOES imagery shows fog persisting in the northern valleys at mid
morning. Morning inversion is mixing out and fog should be
mostly gone by 15z. High pressure and low pwat air mass progged
to build into the area later today, accompanied by fair and
breezy conditions. Strong subsidence in wake of mid level
shortwave will help mix down some fairly gusty west winds.
BUFKIT soundings support occasional gusts of 18-21 knots.
Mixing down 850mb temps supports seasonable Max temps, ranging
from the 50s over much of central PA to the low 60s across the
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
fair and milder conditions appear likely Thursday, as high
pressure passes off the mid Atlantic coast and a return
southwest flow develops. Model 850 temps suggest highs well
into the 60s are likely across the bulk of central PA.
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
*mainly dry through late week
*soaking rain likely this weekend
*cooler temperature trend Monday through Halloween
Mid-high clouds will increase over cpa Thursday night through
Friday. A weak northern stream trough and upper jet dynamics
may induce some light rain/sprinkles over the northern tier
zones Friday night. Otherwise, the late week period will be dry
with temperatures running slightly above average for late
Confidence is increasing (bullish trend) in a soaking rain this
weekend. Models are in better agreement in widespread rain
overspreading the area from southwest to northeast Saturday
evening/night and continuing through Sunday morning. Latest
consensus timing would taper rain off through Sunday afternoon.
Pops were adjusted upward by 10-20% incorporating the latest
The model spread remains significant heading into next week.
As a result, there is very low confidence in the forecast
particularly regarding the precipitation pattern/timing.
The GFS continues to be very progressive with energy tracking
across the conus, and the naefs and gefs are in the same Camp.
The official ndfd forecast leans toward a wpc-preferred slower
solution closer to a blend of the ECMWF/ecens/CMC/UKMET.
Max/mint and pops were were initialized with nbm and manually
adjusted toward the preferred model consensus which added
several degrees to temperatures/dewpoints and kept a mainly dry
pcpn forecast. Pops trend higher into Halloween. Despite the
warmer adjustment, the overall temperature trend will likely be
lower (bearish trend) from Monday through Halloween into early
November which aligns with the latest CPC 6-10/8-14 day
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
not much going on this evening for the 00z taf package.
Winds have weaken across the area.
Airmass is quite dry now, thus I am not expecting fog like last
High pressure will keep VFR conditions across the region
into at least Friday.
Winds will pick up some across the north and west by late
morning or early afternoon on Thursday, as the pressure
gradient tightens up.
Fri...increasing clouds but no significant weather expected.
Sat...widespread rain late Saturday afternoon in the southwest
overspreading to the northeast.
Sun...widespread rain showers expected with associated
sub VFR conditions through the afternoon.
Mon...dry with mainly VFR conditions.