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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
639 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Discussion...

Note aviation discussion below corresponding to the 00z tafs.

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions early tonight will transition to a mixture of
MVFR/VFR ceilings overnight/early Thursday morning, along with
possible MVFR visibility conditions over portions of the Victoria
Crossroads, due in part to earlier rainfall. Isolated showers
anticipated over the coastal Bend Thursday morning. Isolated/scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon, mainly
over the Victoria Crossroads. Generally light south wind
overnight/early Thursday, with increasing onshore flow by late
afternoon.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 249 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/

Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...

As the remains of Imelda drift north across far East Texas through
tomorrow, an east-to-west surface trough lingering in its wake
should be the main focus for some showery precip. This trough has
already helped trigger some widely scattered precip in The Hill
Country, while farther south a second axis of convergence is
aiding is mostly isolated activity. Expectation is for scattered
convection to primarily impact the Victoria Crossroads area
through early evening before waning in coverage once the boundary
layer decouples. Later tonight, the pattern remains supportive
for another round of some fog and/or stratus for the coastal
plains northeast to the Victoria area, although the coverage
should be more localized than what unfolded this morning. By
Thursday afternoon, short range ensembles generally favor a repeat
of today's isolated to scattered precip, albeit displaced a bit
farther east given an upper ridge nudging east across the Rio
Grande. Unfortunately, high temps look to end on the hotter end of
guidance again tomorrow with heat indices cracking 110 degrees
over parts of the southern coastal Bend, although this appears to
be too brief (less than 2 hours) to necessitate a heat advisory.

Long term (friday through wednesday)...

The extended period features gradually lowering pops as an upper
ridge slowly noses into the area. Main rain chances will remain well
northeast of the County Warning Area but scattered convection will be possible over
the weekend. Dry weather is expected Monday night and Tuesday under
the ridge, then isolated convection returns to the forecast on
Wednesday as moisture levels increase once again.

Marine...

Moderate to briefly strong onshore flow is expected through
Thursday night with widespread scec conditions likely over the
Gulf waters. South winds tonight and Thursday night could touch
Small Craft Advisory levels mainly for the nearshore waters, but confidence in this
is low at this time. A generally moderate onshore flow will
continue Friday and Friday night, diminishing to light to moderate
over the weekend. Mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms can
be expected, with scattered activity from Friday through Monday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 79 98 78 92 78 / 10 20 10 20 20
Victoria 76 95 77 91 76 / 30 40 20 40 20
Laredo 78 101 78 99 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
Alice 77 99 77 95 76 / 0 20 10 20 10
Rockport 80 91 81 90 81 / 10 20 20 30 30
Cotulla 78 101 78 99 77 / 0 10 20 10 10
Kingsville 78 98 78 94 77 / 10 20 10 20 10
Navy corpus 81 90 81 89 81 / 10 20 10 20 30

&&

Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.

&&

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